Brief Thailand: Elections, Coups and Constitutions: Thailand’s Reckoning and more

In this briefing:

1. Elections, Coups and Constitutions: Thailand’s Reckoning
2. Thai Election 2019: Defeat in Parliament, Victory in Senate
3. US Lake Charles LNG Liquefaction Plant Tendering for Contractors: Positive for TechnipFMC
4. Prayuth Accomplishes a Clear-Cut Victory, Assuring Stability (If Not Rapid Growth)
5. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Thailand’s Election, Philippine Banks, and Data Junkies

1. Elections, Coups and Constitutions: Thailand’s Reckoning

Thailand went to the polls for the first time in six years last Sunday. The Election Commission will release results for 94% of the vote this Friday, with full and confirmed results released on 9 May. An elected government will be restored but the game has been rigged by the amended 2017 Constitution which allows the military to appoint the 250-strong Senate.

We asked our long-time Thai political correspondent, Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University, to have a look at Thailand’s political history and to give us his views on the likely outcome. Dr. Thitinan forecasts the return of Prayut Chan-Ocha as prime minister but at the head of a very weak government in what looks likely to be a Pheu Thai coalition in the lower house. Thai politics looks set to become fractious, and interesting, once again.

2. Thai Election 2019: Defeat in Parliament, Victory in Senate

With over 90% of the votes counted, the Thaksinite party Peau Thai currently leads with a razor-thin margin of 10 seats, which will be easily overwhelmed by at least 200+ senators who will certainly support the Army faction that appointed them.

• This ensures policy continuity. The Thaksinite lead is simply too small to justify a mass protest and political uncertainty feared by foreign investors. The stock market reacted counter-intuitively by falling, and this seems like a good opportunity to buy from our vantage point.

• The strong showing of newbie party Future Forward, now Thailand’s third largest, should benefit TSC (Thai Steel Cable) on the sentiment level. Thanatorn’s uncle Suriya is part of the pro-Army party, though joining the government bloc may be tricky given Future Forward’s campaign stance.

• The Democrats performed poorly, losing much of their seats in both Bangkok and Southern Thailand (their home base), to Future Forward and Pracharat respectively. However, they may still end up in the government if Future Forward doesn’t pounce on the opportunity.
• Bhumjaithai was the only swing vote party that did well in this election, emerging as number 4. At the moment, they are the most likely party for the pro-Army government, given their friendly and flexible stance prior to the elections. The Party Leader’s family controls STEC.

3. US Lake Charles LNG Liquefaction Plant Tendering for Contractors: Positive for TechnipFMC

Energy Transfer LP (ET US) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) have signed a Project Framework Agreement to further develop a large-scale LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana and move toward a potential final investment decision (FID). They have started actively engaging with LNG Engineering, Procurement and Contracting (EPC) companies with a plan to issue an Invitation to Tender (ITT) in the weeks ahead. We look at the potential contract size and winners and also the other US LNG projects that could be negatively impacted. More detail on the LNG project queue for this year in: A Huge Wave of New LNG Projects Coming in the Next 18 Months: Positive for The E&C Companies.

4. Prayuth Accomplishes a Clear-Cut Victory, Assuring Stability (If Not Rapid Growth)

After 18 years, the Thai (military) establishment has finally tamed Thaksin Shinawatra in the 2019 election, the first one since 2001 in which a party linked to Thaksin has not won a plurality.  Since the military coup of 1932, Thailand’s most stable and powerful institution has been the military — preserving order and continuity. In the 20th century, no single party ever had sufficient parliamentary support to govern Thailand on its own; so, even when the military was not directly governing, it was able to decisively influence weak coalitions of civilian parties. That changed in 2001, and parties linked to Thaksin have dominated all elections held since 2001 — but those governments have been brought down by 3 military coups since 2006. 

Albeit aided by a slew of rule-changes aimed at handicapping Pheu Thai and benefitting his own Palang Pracharat party, Prime Minister (and retired General) Prayuth Chan-ocha has now pulled off a peaceful electoral coup. In a sensational upset, Prayuth’s political vehicle (Palang Pracharat) won the nationwide popular vote count — albeit by declaring 6% of the votes cast invalid. Given that the composition of the House is based on proportional representation, Palang Pracharat is likely to be a very close second to Pheu Thai in the number of seats held in the House. (Pheu Thai won 137 of the 350 constituencies, to 97 for Palang Pracharat). Although the Future Forward party led by businessman Thanathorn will be the third-largest party in the House (and will likely align with Pheu Thai), the next two parties (Bumjaithai and Democrat) are likely to support Prayuth. With the support of all 250 Senators, the Prayuth-led coalition will have an overwhelming majority in a joint Senate-House sitting — which is where the Prime Minister is chosen. 

Prayuth will thus go down in Thailand’s history as a military-turned-civilian leader in the pantheon of Phibun (who was PM for 14 years, and the creator of modern Thailand), Sarit (his dynamic successor in the late-1950s) and Prem Tinsulanond (the iconic leader of Thailand in 1980-88 who created the modern Thai economic miracle). While Prayuth’s stewardship of the economy has been uninspiring over the past 5 years, the last two of them were slightly better, with a quickening of real GDP growth to a 4% annual handle. While we expect a period of political instability over the next 6 weeks as the election results are announced and fought over, the ultimate outcome will be a stable government led by Prayuth that will likely complete a decade in office. While growth will be less dynamic than it would be under a Thaksinite government, stability will allow Thai corporates to plan for the medium term (including growing their regional presence, as they have done in the past decade). While we remain cautious about the near-term, we are now moderately positive on Thailand on a 3-6 month view. 

5. The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Thailand’s Election, Philippine Banks, and Data Junkies

Macro Insights

In Thailand: Elections Are Not Irrelevant; This One Too Pits Faster Growth Vs. Military “Stability”, Cross ASEAN Insight provider Prasenjit K. Basu discusses the implications of the result of Thailand’s election, which will likely see the incumbent Prime Minister retain his position, this times as a democratically elected leader (result covered in the discussion stream). 

In Widodo Lead Intact / VP Debate Lacks Impact / Trade Slows / Permitting Impediment / PPP Chair Arrest, Kevin O’Rourke looks at the most important political and economic developments over the past week and provides his value-added comment. 

In Thailand’s Election – Growth Story Plays Wait and See, Dr. Jim Walker discusses the recent monetary moves by the Bank of Thailand and what the result of the election might mean for growth. 

In Philippines: El Niño’s Comeback – How Bad? , Jun Trinidad looks at the potential impact from the predicted comeback of El Nino in the economy. 

In Asian Credit Monitor: The Pad Thai Election, Warut Promboon looks at the potential impact of the results from the Thai election and the implications for credit in that country. 

Equity Bottom-up Insights

In XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – The Crown Prince of Data, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh circles back to Indonesia’s most direct play on the rising consumption of mobile data, as pricing in that market starts to look more favourable. 

In Golden Agri: El Nino Back on the Front Burner; Bullish Catalyst for GAR, commodities specialist Charles Spencer zeros on the potential positive impact from an impending El Nino.

In Philippine National Bank – The Beginning of Recognition, Daniel Tabbush circles back to this leading but unappreciated Philippines lender, where he sees greater appreciation from investors starting to transpire. 

In Tisco – A Bright Bank in a Dim Rate World, Daniel Tabbush revisit one of his top financial picks in Thailand. 

In SUTL: Puteri Harbor Construction Started Last Week, Membership Sales to Follow, Cash = 84% of MktCap. CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to this small-cap marina play and finds it to be one of the cheapest stocks listed on the SGX. 

In Delta Electronics (DELTA TB): Thoughts on the IFA’s Valuation RangeDelta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB), Arun George circles back to this ongoing tender offer, which he recommends minorities should accept. 

In After You Looks Beyond Thailand For Opportunities, our Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA writes on After You Pcl (AU TB) and Amata Corp Public (AMATA TB) following recent meetings with management. The meetings with the two companies whose industries could not have been more different. 

Sector and Thematic Insights

In Thai Telecoms: Slowdown in Mobile Business Continues., our comrades and collaborators at New Street Research circle back to the Thai Telco sector post 4Q18 results. 

In Snippets #21: Bremen, TMB Rights Issue, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five developments/news flows/trends and their potential impact on Thai equities over the past week or so. 

In Phillippine Gaming Tug of War Disguises Vibrant Sector Potential for 2019-2020, gaming specialist Howard J Klein zeros in on the Philippines gaming sector, which currently flies under investor’s radar but has a lot of future potentials, and more especially Bloomberry Resorts (BLOOM PM). 

In Singapore Real Deals (Issue 5): The Largest Condominium in Singapore, Anni Kum presents a fortnightly property digest that takes you through the peculiarities of Singapore’s real estate market. In this issue, she looks at the launch of Treasure at Tampines in District 18, the largest condominium in Singapore to-date. (Official launch last weekend).