Brief Thailand: Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings and more

In this briefing:

1. Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings
2. Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows
3. Shaky Situations at DEMCO and Pranda
4. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
5. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note

1. Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings

• Global Liquidity bottoming out, but Central Banks not yet easing
• US Fed only withdrew $30bn in Q1, versus $350 bn in Q4
• PBoC still tightening through OMOs
• ECB  on ‘pause’
• QE4 is coming in 2019, but no evidence it has started yet

2. Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows

The rapidly improving outlook in the LNG industry over the last few years, reinforced towards the end of 2017 by the unexpected growth of demand from China, has set off a proliferation of new LNG projects especially from the US (Exhibit 1).

In its latest LNG Outlook report, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) is projecting from 2023 onwards a significant gap between the future LNG demand and the existing supply including the capacity under construction that could require up to 100mtpa of new LNG project sanctions by 2023.

The race to gain market share in the projected LNG demand-supply gap has produced an aggregated capacity of proposed new projects of up to 475mtpa, a number larger than the total LNG traded volume in 2018 of 319mtpa and way above the capacity required to meet the future growth in LNG demand.

Exhibit 1: Funnel of proposed LNG projects getting bigger

3. Shaky Situations at DEMCO and Pranda

We visited two companies with very different trajectories. 

• Renewable power specialist DEMCO is struggling, despite doing really well in the past, while jeweler Pranda, once struggling, is on the recovery path.
• DEMCO reported gross profit and revenue decline of 8% and 7% respectively. Their earnings more than doubled, but that’s solely due to dividends from Wind Energy, an investment that cost them Bt800m and is embroiled in scandal.
• Pranda’s operating cash flows surged from Bt12m to Bt230m, as they restructured their store network.
• We’d still be caution on PDJ, as management doesn’t feel the restructuring is over. More stores could be closed down in the future.

4. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished

• The dollar IS the story
• EUR punished for negative yields
• Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
• Gold confounds
• Bitcoin at an interesting juncture

The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.

5. Climate Action – School Strikes Hit a Spot, Carbon Emitters Face Heat. Investors Take Note

On Friday, March 15th, an estimated 1.6 million students in over 120 countries (source: Time magazine) walked out of classrooms and took to streets demanding radical climate action. Climate change activism rarely grabbed headlines or wider public attention as it is doing now. Rising climate activism will continue to train the spotlight on industries/businesses associated with carbon-emission making it increasingly difficult for them to expand capacities or secure funding. Large institutional investors – sovereign funds, pension funds, insurance companies – have begun to incorporate climate risk into investment policy and are limiting exposure to sectors that directly contribute to carbon emissions – primarily coal, crude oil producers and power plants based on them. Expect sector devaluation; active investors may well look beyond juicy near term earnings and dividend yield.

Even as scientists and meteorological organisations keep warning of dire consequences unless concrete action is taken to limit carbon emissions to stall climate change, political establishment/regulators in most countries are in denial while others are doing little more than lip service.  If so, should corporates care? even though businesses are the ones that play a direct role in escalating carbon emissions. With rising consumer awareness and activism, several industries associated with carbon emissions are already facing operational and funding challenges; we believe, it pays for all businesses to be above par on ‘climate action’ – it would be in their own self-interest, not just general good. And do Investors bother? Under the aegis of Climate Action 100+, an investor initiative with 320 signatories having more than USD33 trillion in assets collectively under management, they have been engaging companies on improving governance, curbing emissions and strengthening climate-related financial disclosures. It has listed out Oil & Gas, Mining, Utilities and Auto manufacturers as target sectors. Investors have already been making an impact – by vote or exit. It sure makes logical sense to effect positive change and minimise climate risk when you have a long term investment horizon.

In the detailed note below we

• discuss how rising consumer/investor activism and/or political/regulatory changes are posing challenges to key sectors –Coal, Oil & Gas, Automobiles/Aviation, Consumer goods –  that are associated with carbon emissions. 
• analyse how rising climate activism is negatively impacting growth prospects and valuation of companies in these sectors.
• highlight the opportunities for businesses to capitalise on changing consumer preferences for products that minimise carbon footprint and differentiate themselves by being on the right side of climate action.
• present a quick primer on climate change and lay down the key facts and data on climate change as presented by World Meteorological Organisation, NASA and IPCC.