In today’s briefing:
- TOP: Solid Refinery Margin to Drive 4Q21 Performance
- BBL: Strong Growth Rebound and Improving Asset Quality
- BCH: Share Price Exaggerated COVID Restrictions Easing
TOP: Solid Refinery Margin to Drive 4Q21 Performance
- We expect TOP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt5.1bn (-30% YoY, +146% QoQ).
- The growth will be supported by solid spike in GRM. which should increase to US$5.5/bbl, up from US$1.2/bbl in 4Q20 and US$1.6/bbl in 3Q21,backed by strong rise in product spreads
- The Aromatics & LAB, and Lube base oil contribution should soften QoQ due to 25 to 50%decline in product spreads.However, overall base GIM should increase to US$7.1/bbl,(+97% YoY, +29% QoQ).
BBL: Strong Growth Rebound and Improving Asset Quality
- Maintain our BUY call with a target price of Bt162. Our BUY call reflects steady earnings growth; a resilient balance sheet; and undemanding valuation.
- Net profit in 4Q21 came in strong and in line with expectations. Net profit increased 164% YoY (-9% QoQ) thanks to higher operating income.
- Asset quality improved. The NPL ratio surprisingly lowered to just 3.2% in 4Q21 (2020: 3.9%).
BCH: Share Price Exaggerated COVID Restrictions Easing
- Maintain HOLD rating, with a TP of Bt21, based on 23xPE’22E,which is close to -1SD of its 10-years trailing average. The 30% drop in share price from its August 21
- Yesterday, the Centre for COVID-19 Situation decided to relax some restrictive measures including a revision to the colour-coded zoning and resuming Test&Go registration for foreign travelers starting from 1 Feb
- Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt1.3bn (+384%YoY,-54%QoQ), tumble by weak margin due to the Covid cases declined 69%, but partially offset by pent-up demand for core services
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
