In today’s briefing:
- RS: Strengthening Entertainmerce Portfolio
- SPA: Expect Earnings to Turn Positive from 4Q22 Onwards
- Home Product Center (HMPRO.BK) – Recovery Begins
- ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year
- KCE: Revise 2022 TP Down by 7% to Reflect Short-Term Issues
- CHG: Pivot Focus to Organic Growth in 2022
- CBG: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Recover QoQ
RS: Strengthening Entertainmerce Portfolio
- We have a positive view toward the acquisition of Unilever’s direct sales business as it align with the company’s business strategy to strengthen Entertainmerce business especially on outbound sales. Excluding
- Our expectation over earnings recovery in 2022E will be driven by 1.) 35% revenue growth supported by recovery of existing MPC segments and consolidation of ULife,2.) an absence of heavy
- We expect RS to post 4Q21 net loss at Bt10m (compared with Bt0.9m loss in 3Q21 and Bt103m profit in 4Q20).
SPA: Expect Earnings to Turn Positive from 4Q22 Onwards
- We expect SPA to incur the seven consecutive loss quarter in 4Q21 at Bt69m due to its operation below EBIT breakeven level.
- We expect operating loss to be lower both YoY and QoQ due to more efficient cost and expense management.
- Meanwhile, we expect 4Q21 revenue at Bt40m (-51%YoY, +209%QoQ), which will be affected by weak domestic demand.
Home Product Center (HMPRO.BK) – Recovery Begins
- Share price lags as earnings bias turns positive
- 4Q21 likely up YoY and significantly higher QoQ
- Earnings bias positive
HMPRO’s share price has begun to recover, rising 8% in the past 12 months but underperforming the SET by 2ppt. We expect a strong recovery in 4Q21, building up to a greater potential rebound in 2022. The earnings bias is currently positive, underpinned by resumption of store expansion (2-4/yr), strong renovation demand and a potential pick-up in residential project launches. Thus the 1.19x 1-yr PEG is attractive. Re-iterate BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB16.9 (7.5% WACC, 3.6% G).
ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year
- Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G
- Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war
- As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.
KCE: Revise 2022 TP Down by 7% to Reflect Short-Term Issues
- Analyst meeting came out with negative tone regarding 22E outlook.We cut our TP by 7% to Bt95.8,derived from 38.4xPE’22E (+1SD of 5Y trading average), to factor in earnings downgrade. But
- Recent drop in share price factored in concern on rising material costs and delay in launching new factory which should be a short-term issue and should provide opportunity share accumulation
- We cut our 22E earnings forecast down by 7% to factor in lower margin due to rising copper material costs and lower revenue due to delay in launching new factory.
CHG: Pivot Focus to Organic Growth in 2022
- Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E,which is its pre-COVID bottom level.The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in concern over 3Q21
- Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt854m (+234%YoY,-45%QoQ), decline due to weak revenue growth, and narrow margin.
- Foresee momentum in 1Q22 arising from the Omicron variant,given the amount of infection patients grew roughly to 7-13k cases per day.Along with vaccines rollout, which should be realize in 1Q22
CBG: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Recover QoQ
- We reiterate a BUY rating for CBG with a target price of Bt131 based on 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thailand energy drink stocks.
- We expect CBG to post 4Q21 net profit of Bt674m (-23%YoY, +12%QoQ), a recovery from the lowest level in the past nine quarters in 3Q21.
- We foresee 2022E earnings to hit the record high at Bt3.7bn (+32%YoY)driven by a solid revenue growth at +25%YoY from recovering sales in Thailand and CLMV market from low base
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma