Technical Analysis

Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Equity Strategy: Market in Wait-And-See Mode; Upgrading Tech and more

In this briefing:

  1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Market in Wait-And-See Mode; Upgrading Tech
  2. Brent Oil Fresh Short Levels and Macro Sequence into 2020

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Market in Wait-And-See Mode; Upgrading Tech

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The S&P 500 has paused just below logical resistance at the downtrend, and we believe the equity market is in wait-and-see mode for incremental information on a variety of issues including trade talks, Fed action and earnings.  Meanwhile, We are upgrading equal-weighted Technology to overweight. Our equal-weighted Tech Sector has surged to the top of our RSR ranks due to broad-based strength in semiconductors last week. Solar stocks are another Group that is emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight attractive small-cap Technology stocks, as well as selection of key stocks (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, V, NFLX, and ADBE) and subsectors (semis, biotech, and homebuilders) which are all up against logical price resistance.

2. Brent Oil Fresh Short Levels and Macro Sequence into 2020

Brent’s rise from 52 support has so far fallen in line with a corrective rise that is starting to run out of steam. In this webcast we outline key pivot levels to buy and where we see a rally exhausting ahead of a fresh re test on lower support levels.

Oil peaked in line with our call for a macro top to form into October 2018 Oil Stall for Roll into Brent for a Final High . WTI and Brent Moving into Our Macro Peak Zone with a WTI 58 Target

Oil remains a good barometer of global growth, which is set to slow into the summer and more so in 2020. Oil will also respond to a improved sentiment on China/US trade. Venezuela’s supply concerns failed to induce any real reaction as major players appear to be building short positions into strength. Tactically, oil is reaching for a minor new high and the failure to rally on potential supply constraints does play into a pending cycle peak.

We run through our tactical sequence as well as our macro view into 2020 (more bearish).

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