Brief Singapore: UOB – Driving Bad Loans and more

In this briefing:

1. UOB – Driving Bad Loans
2. Best World (BEST SP): BT Article, Franchise and KOL
3. Lippo Malls REIT – Acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri Announced. Dilutive Rights Issue Coming.

1. UOB – Driving Bad Loans

It’s easy to miss. Headline bad loans are down. But United Overseas Bank (UOB SP) saw a surge in newly defaulted loans during 2H18 compared with 1H18.  The bank’s Pillar 3 disclosure reveals this all too clearly, and it goes to true underlying credit metrics. Write-offs flatter figures or loan reschedulings, and high figures here can lead one to believe that companies and consumers are finding it easier to service their loans. This though may not be true. And it may be one of the most important considerations when analyzing any bank.

2. Best World (BEST SP): BT Article, Franchise and KOL

Best World International (BEST SP) share price has been hammered due to the recent article in Business Times, although the company has addressed them one by one. The annual meeting that recently took place in their office in Singapore shed some light on the seemingly “new but not so new” franchise business model in China. The company also has started to engage Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) aka social media influencers as part of their social selling campaign. 

3. Lippo Malls REIT – Acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri Announced. Dilutive Rights Issue Coming.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) (“LMIRT”) today announced the acquisition of Lippo Mall Puri from its sponsor PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk for a consideration of Rp.3,700.0 bil (S$354.7 mil).

There is a significant amount of vendor support provided by Lippo Group to improve the net property income and NPI yield of Lippo Mall Puri. If we exclude the vendor support from the target NPI, the NPI yield excluding vendor support will just be 6.52% per annum.

The transaction is DPU and yield dilutive. The resultant DPU post-transaction will decline from 2.05 S-cents to 1.61 S-cents / 1.42 S-cents. Distribution yield will also fall from 10.25% to 9.28% / 8.85% based on TERP.

The transaction could also potentially result in LMIRT’s gearing increasing from 34.6% to 39.0% which will worsen its balance sheet strength and credit standings. 

In view of the unattractive acquisition and potential EFR dilution, investors should avoid LMIRT for now and wait for opportunity to enter with a greater margin of safety.