In today’s briefing:
- JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- Market Talk on the Five Stocks Hitting the Lower Limit Yesterday
- Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger
- SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global
- Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
- Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer
JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
- Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
- The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.
Market Talk on the Five Stocks Hitting the Lower Limit Yesterday
- The trigger for yesterday’s sell-off was the sudden collective decision of the brokerages that had been allowing credit trading for these stocks to halt credit trading simultaneously.
- There is a possibility that the identities of the stocks under investigation were leaked, and these brokerages took preemptive actions.
- There have also been observations of large-cap stocks that may become the next targets. Some notable examples include Cosmo Chemical, Kum Yang, Posco International, and Ecopro Co.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – RMB Dual Counter Trading Starts Today, Watch that A-Share Discount
- 24 different HK-listed stocks will be tradable in RMB on the HKEX starting 19 June. They make up 35% of HKEX market cap, 40% of total turnover. They are fungible.
- The ultimate goal is to allow mainland investors to trade HK stocks in RMB, but we’re not there yet. Southbound has yet to be approved for the 21 SB-eligible names.
- Only five of the 24 have A-shares, and of those, three (China Mobile, CNOOC, and Great Wall Motor) have wide H-share discounts. Those should be the ones to look at.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger
- There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
- The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
- Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.
SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT
- Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
- The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global
- Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside
- Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise.
- Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There’s a trade here.
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves
- The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
- Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.8% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 0.27%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.63% vs +1.99%.
- The stocks with outflows have outperformed stocks with inflows by a huge margin in the recent past and short interest has jumped on most stocks recently.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
Ohayo Japan | US Equities-Risks Elevated? ; NUGGET: SBI HD(8473)-Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early
- OVERSEAS. SPX -0.4% 1st down day 7 as Markets price in Peak rates/rate declines; SPX Looks risky here(More BELOW); China revamps NEV subsidies; Putin places tactical Nukes in Belarus..mmm
- JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 141.8 post-BOJ on Friday; NKY wins for 10th week; Kishida survives no-confidence motion; TEPCO goes full into Renewables; Lawsons makes a China push
- NUGGET. SBI HD(8473) – Carbon Trading, Jumping in Early in what sets up to be a major opportunity
Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Key Shareholders Ponder an Offer
- Amara Holdings (AMA SP) received a written notification from Mr Albert Teo Hock Chuan (CEO) and Ms Susan Teo Geok Tin (Company Secretary) that they mulling an offer.
- The shares entered a trading halt on 16 June as the share price increased 23.9% from S$0.355 on 14 June to S$0.440 per share on 16 June.
- Recent SGX privatisation proposals have shown that offerors tend to be miserly with their premiums. The sharp share price rally makes it challenging to launch an offer.
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