In today’s briefing:
- Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off
- Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ): Offer Now Open
- Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, CPMC, GA Pack, Tohokushinsha, Furukawa, Tatsuta
- Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas
- ENEOS Bumps Tatsuta Elec (5809) Bid – 8.3% Bump Matches 8.7% Rise in BVPS Since Announcement
- STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioning Indicates Further Gains for a Long/Short Trade
- Ansarada (AND AU)’s Scheme Is Back On Track
- NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members
- A8 Media (800 HK): 23rd August Shareholder Vote
Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP): Potential Scenarios as 3D Lobs a Privatisation Proposal
- On 24 July, 3D Investment Partners proposed to privatise Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) through a tender offer at JPY600-650 per share. A special committee will evaluate the proposal.
- 3D’s privatisation plan, in its current terms, is a non-starter as the price is low, and its activism campaign has so far been met with the Board’s scepticism.
- The possible scenarios are that a white knight emerges to buy 3D’s stake/launch a counteroffer, 3D bumps the offer price, or the Board introduces a more ambitious MTM plan.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off
- TSMC: Crashed Then Rebounded to +15.1% Premium; Likely to Break Down Again
- UMC: -0.2% Discount; Earnings Imminent; Notable Decrease in ADR Headroom
- ASE: Rebounded to +9.2 Premium After Major Breakdown; Likely to Drop Again
Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ): Offer Now Open
- Waaay back in June 2023, MUFG (8306 JP) and 92.7%-held Adira Dinamika (ADMF IJ) entered into SPAs with key shareholders to acquire an 80.6% stake in Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ).
- MFIN’s shareholders overwhelmingly approved the change of control at the 13th Feb EGM. OJK signing off was the next hurdle.
- The Tender Offer is now open, at the (expected) price of IDR 3,297/share. The close of the Offer is the 21st August, with payment on the 28th August.
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Jul) – China TCM, Canvest, CPMC, GA Pack, Tohokushinsha, Furukawa, Tatsuta
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), L’Occitane (973 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Alps Logistics (9055 JP).
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas
- NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
- With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
- We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.
ENEOS Bumps Tatsuta Elec (5809) Bid – 8.3% Bump Matches 8.7% Rise in BVPS Since Announcement
- Several weeks ago, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) launched its long-delayed Tender Offer for Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) with no bump despite the time value of money.
- It said the price reflected Tatsuta’s value sufficiently. A week ago on the 19th, ENEOS extended the Tender Offer, likely because they didn’t have the shares. Price was still “sufficient.”
- I suggested it might not be; I didn’t expect a big bump, but caveated earnings. Friday produced great Q1 earnings, and a bump from ¥720/share to ¥780/share.
STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioning Indicates Further Gains for a Long/Short Trade
- There are only 3 trading days left in the review period for the September rebalance of the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
- We see two potential changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 3.6% and in a one-way trade of CNY 4.7bn (US$644m).
- Cumulative excess volume has started to pick up in the stocks over the last few weeks and that could be an indicator of further gains for a long/short trade.
Ansarada (AND AU)’s Scheme Is Back On Track
- Datasite’s A$2.50/share, in cash, lifetime-high Offer for virtual room provider Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), announced on the 13th Feb, appeared a total slam dunk.
- And for the most part it was, with the Explanatory Doc lodged on the 12th April, and Scheme Meeting initially scheduled for the 14th June. Then the ACCC waded in.
- The ACCC has now signed off. FIRB will follow shortly. The revised Scheme Meeting will be held on the 19 August, with expected implementation on the 6 September.
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members
- With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- All the deletes are F&O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.
A8 Media (800 HK): 23rd August Shareholder Vote
- Back on the 12th June, PRC property rental play A8 New Media (800 HK) announced an Offer by way of a Scheme from chairman/founder/major shareholder Liu Xiaosong.
- The Cancellation price was $0.36/share, a punchy 162.77% to last close. The price was declared final.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with an independent shareholder vote on the 23 August and payment on or around the 2nd October. This is a done deal.
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