In today’s briefing:
- Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications
- GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos
- Shakey’s Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22
- The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance – $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, MSCI, ASX200, CSI300, HDFC/HDFCB, PPT/PDL
Tabcorp (TAH AU): Spin-Off Upside & Index Implications
- If approved, Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) will spin-off the Lotteries and Keno business (The Lottery Corporation; TLC) from the Wagering & Media and Gaming Services business (new Tabcorp).
- Based on peer valuations, we see an upside of 11% from the last price. The Scheme Meeting is on 12 May and the Second Court Hearing on 20 May.
- TLC should remain in all major indices, while new Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) could be deleted from the S&P/ASX 50 Index and the MSCI Australia Index.
GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos
- Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.
- The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
- Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.
Shakey’s Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22
- Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&B normalizing in the Philippines. On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.
- Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like Domino’s Pizza (DPZ US) and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey’s an extremely cheap stock.
- Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).
The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance – $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months
- The TSE launched its new cash equity market structure earlier this week. The TOPIX Index changes include a one-off FFW Methodology Review, where results were announced today.
- The changes announced today go part-way to fixing float issues, but there will be follow-on changes in October, and one should expect companies to react with share cancellations.
- The big gainer in this TOPIX rebal is NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP). There are a fair number of “losers.” The 3-month total trade is about ¥2.3trln one-way.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, MSCI, ASX200, CSI300, HDFC/HDFCB, PPT/PDL
- The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance takes place at the close on Monday, 11 April with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) replacing CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU).
- The review period for the MSCI May SAIR starts on 18 April. There will be adds/deletes, listing switches, and FIF changes (both big and small).
- There were big inflows to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US), Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US) and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG US) ETFs.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
