In today’s briefing:
- SBI Obtains Approval – Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei – It Isn’t Strategic, It’s Technical
- Toshiba (6502) – JIP Gets Preferred Bidder Status and We Get The First Price Leak
- MSCI Korea November SAIR: Potential Deletes Continue to Slide
- Socionext IPO Trading – Upsized IPO with Strong Demand. Peers Inched Downwards, but Upside Remains
- Socionext (6526 JP): Index Inclusion Timeline
- GLP J-Reit (3281 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers
- True/DTAC: NBTC’s Last Roll Of The Dice?
- LionHeart Studio IPO – Peer Comparison – Youngest and Most Untested
- HK Connect: Sep ’22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis
- PTB Group (PTB AU): 16 Nov Scheme Meeting. IE Says Fair
SBI Obtains Approval – Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei – It Isn’t Strategic, It’s Technical
- SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s unit SBI Regional Bank Holdings KK (SBI 地銀ホールディングス株式会社) today announced it had received FSA authorisation to turn the company into a Bank Holding Company.
- There are some technicalities involved. SBI announced it would buy 2.5mm shares of Shinsei on-market to get to 50.05% by end-March 2023. This will disappoint some, but…
- I expect investors should continue to look at the big picture. Technicalities are technicalities. Strategy is strategy. The big picture is unchanged and there isn’t that much room to manoeuvre.
Toshiba (6502) – JIP Gets Preferred Bidder Status and We Get The First Price Leak
- Overnight, a few news outlets are running with the story that Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has granted “preferred bidder” status to the Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)-led consortium bid.
- JIP had originally signed up with public-private fund JIC, forming one of the four bids (the other three being CVC, Bain, and Brookfield) but JIP and JIC split last month.
- “Preferred Bidder status” is just that. It’s not exclusive, but one can read between the lines. But the articles have interesting details, including the first trial ballon price leak.
MSCI Korea November SAIR: Potential Deletes Continue to Slide
- With a week to the start of the review period, we forecast one inclusion and a lot more deletions for the MSCI Korea Index at the November SAIR.
- The impact from passive fund trading is pretty large on the potential and close deletes while the impact is a lot more muted on the sole potential add.
- There will be pre-positioning on most of the names already and part of that shows up in sharply higher short interest on a few stocks.
Socionext IPO Trading – Upsized IPO with Strong Demand. Peers Inched Downwards, but Upside Remains
- Socionext (6526 JP) raised around US$463m in its Japan IPO. The IPO consisted of 100% secondary shares.
- Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation.
- In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.
Socionext (6526 JP): Index Inclusion Timeline
- Socionext (6526 JP) traded 15.1% higher than its IPO price on listing day. That gives it a market cap of JPY 141.4bn (US$963m).
- Socionext (6526 JP) will be added to the TPX INDEX in November and could be added to the MSCI SmallCap Index in February and the FTSE All-Cap Index in June.
- The close yesterday indicates there could be more buying behind while the TOPIX inclusion in November will be a source of short-term demand for the stock.
GLP J-Reit (3281 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers
- Today after the close, large-cap logistics JREIT GLP J-REIT (3281 JP) (“GLP”) announced a follow-on equity offering to fund part of their recently-announced property acquisition.
- The primary offer quantity is 215,962 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 5,809 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥33bn (~US$227mn).
- Below is a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.
True/DTAC: NBTC’s Last Roll Of The Dice?
- With near-on nine-month having lapsed since True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) submitted an amalgamation report, the NBTC may conclude/clarify a sweeping resolution today.
- That resolution, prompted by DTAC and True, is expected to establish the NBTC has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the merger, although remedial measures may be enforced.
- Further rumours abound as I type that the NBTC decision may be delayed another week.
LionHeart Studio IPO – Peer Comparison – Youngest and Most Untested
- Lionheart Studio (426630 KS), a game development studio based in South Korea, aims to raise around US$420m via its South Korean IPO.
- The company is majority owned by Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS), which after having recently hiked its stake, owned 54.94% of the company prior to listing.
- We spoke about the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we’ll undertake a peer comparison.
HK Connect: Sep ’22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis
- After one month from the September batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 12 stocks.
- We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.
- We continued to observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume.
PTB Group (PTB AU): 16 Nov Scheme Meeting. IE Says Fair
- Back on the 18 August, aviation engine repair play PTB Group (PTB AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PAG Holding, at $1.595/share, a 40.5% premium to last close.
- The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. The Independent Expert reckons the Offer is fair and reasonable.
- The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 16 November, as previously flagged in August’s SID, with an expected implementation on the 9 December.
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