In today’s briefing:
- Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update
- China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Investors May Need to Prepare for a Longer Wait
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)
- SMFG Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$17bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Planning to Speed It Up
- Asia Cement China (743 HK): A Low-Balled Offer Set up to Fail
- Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April
- Sakura Internet Placement – Beneficiary of the AI-Wave Looking to Double Down
- Value-Up Tax Support Revealed by End of June: Local Market Eyes Corporate Tax Cut Beneficiaries
- CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK): First Down, Then Up?
- Asia Cement (743 HK): $3.22/Share Offer – Really?
Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update
- When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
- Nearly 5mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 12wks ago, recommended taking profits.
- Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 2.6% wider than at narrowest. In May, gap risk narrowed as Shinko underperformed Ibiden.
China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Investors May Need to Prepare for a Longer Wait
- The approval/filing process of China TCM’s privatization is complicated and would take some time, but there’re almost no cases of disapproval. It also depends on the adequacy of materials submitted.
- Due to the extension of time for the despatch of Scheme Document, this process would be delayed for more months.But we should receive clear information by October at the latest.
- For arbitrageurs, China TCM is an investment opportunity of high success rate, which becomes more attractive if HK stock market is depressed.It’s better suited to idle funds considering potential risks/returns.
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)
- The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
- The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).
- Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.
SMFG Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$17bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Planning to Speed It Up
- Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) cross-shareholding.
- SMFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$17bn.
- In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.
Asia Cement China (743 HK): A Low-Balled Offer Set up to Fail
- Asia Cement China (743 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Asia Cement (1102 TT) at HK$3.22. Including the dividend, the total offer is HK$3.26, 1.7% below the last close.
- The offer, which is final, is unattractive as it is materially below net cash and historical trading ranges. The disparity cannot be justified by the potential cash burn this year.
- While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates and emerging retail opposition suggest a high chance of a deal break.
Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April
- On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.
- The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.
- A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024.
Sakura Internet Placement – Beneficiary of the AI-Wave Looking to Double Down
- Sakura internet (3778 JP) is looking to raise US$127m from its primary follow-on. Proceeds will be used towards purchasing GPU servers, and constructing new data center facilities.
- While 11% of total shares outstanding are offered here, the deal would be easily digested by the market, representing just 0.8 days of its three month ADV.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
Value-Up Tax Support Revealed by End of June: Local Market Eyes Corporate Tax Cut Beneficiaries
- A high-ranking official from the local financial regulatory authority has confirmed to several local media outlets that the tax benefits for the value-up program will be unveiled this month.
- Corporate tax cuts and separate taxation on dividend income will be included. The short-term impact at the time of the announcement will likely be more significant for corporate tax cuts.
- Local market is focused on screening large companies within the KOSPI 200 that have substantial pre-tax profits in anticipation of the corporate tax cut momentum to be announced this month.
CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK): First Down, Then Up?
- CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK) has traded lower recently and shorts have exploded in the stock in the last few months.
- CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK) has underperformed its peers in the last 6 months and trades cheaper on forward PE and price to book.
- There will be passive selling in the stock in just over two weeks. There will be positioning, but not enough to meet passive supply. Expect a further move lower.
Asia Cement (743 HK): $3.22/Share Offer – Really?
- After Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) (ACC) was suspended on the 28th May, a punchy Offer from its parent Asia Cement (1102 TT) was expected.
- Not to be. Asia Cement is offering $3.22/share, best & final. A 3.01% discount to last close, ~ 45% premium to undisturbed, and a whopping 37% discount to net cash.
- Asia Cement plus concert parties hold 73.38%, so a blocking stake at the Court Meeting is 2.662%. One (possible) aspect in Asia Cement’s favour is that ACC is not shortable.
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