In today’s briefing:
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected
- MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job
- Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading – One for Domestics and Cornerstones
- ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) – ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Pendal, Link Ad, Toshiba, Excelpoint, Cocoaland, True/DTAC
- A Powerful New Bull? Don’t Bet On It!
- Weekly Deals Digest (24 Jul): Thai Life, Bharat FIH, Link, DTAC/True, Pendal, Tassal, Ramsay, AOF
- Merged Lotte Confectionery: Nearly Guaranteed Early Bird for KOSPI 200 Inclusion
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Busy Rebalance With Lots of Changes Expected
- At the September rebalance, we expect changes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
- Potential adds/deletes with large flow and impact include Shopping Cntrs Austrls (SCP AU), Sayona Mining (SYA AU), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU).
- Shorts have increased significantly on a few stocks over the last few weeks, indicating that there could be some pre-positioning on these stocks.
MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR!
- We have completed days 1-5 in the review period for the MSCI August QIR. This is the last review that will use the current QIR methodology.
- Most changes are expected in China with the largest inflows on Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK), Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (000792 CH).
- There are a few stocks that will have same way flows from the FTSE All-World and All-Cap trackers at the September SAIR.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, NIFTY50/100, KRX, Tianqi Lithium, Kotak Bank, Emperador
- We have gone through days 1-5 of the review period for the MSCI September rebalance. There are multiple review cutoffs in the coming week.
- The announcement of the changes to the LQ45/IDX30/IDX80 indices should be made early in the coming week and implemented at the close on 29 July.
- China had the largest ETF inflows over the last week, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative
- Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x.
- Soho China (410 HK)‘s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone’s deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?
Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading – One for Domestics and Cornerstones
- Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.
- Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
- In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics
ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) – ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox
- Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
- There were no major IPO launches during the week. Thai Life will list early next week
- There were no major placements apart from ANZ and a smallish one in Xtep. There are two major lock-up expiries coming up.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Pendal, Link Ad, Toshiba, Excelpoint, Cocoaland, True/DTAC
- There are 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- I see no new transactions were discussed this week on Smartkarma.
- Key updates took place for: Pendal Group (PDL AU),Link Administration (LNK AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), and Cocoaland Holdings (COLA MK).
A Powerful New Bull? Don’t Bet On It!
- The tone of stock market action has become more constructive, but the jury is still out as to whether the latest advance is the start of a V-shaped bottom.
- Fundamentally, we are monitoring the evolution of earnings estimates as the Q2 earnings season progresses.
- From a technical perspective, durable advances are accompanied by strong price momentum, which the bulls haven’t demonstrated yet.
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Jul): Thai Life, Bharat FIH, Link, DTAC/True, Pendal, Tassal, Ramsay, AOF
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- On the ECM front, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) will start trading on 25 July, Bharat FIH (BFIH IN) aims to launch an August IPO to raise US$625 million.
- Event-Driven developments at DTAC/True, Link Administration (LNK AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU), Tassal (TGR AU), Suncorp (SUN AU), Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Cocoaland.
Merged Lotte Confectionery: Nearly Guaranteed Early Bird for KOSPI 200 Inclusion
- Lotte Confectionery’s screening period for the upcoming rebalancing will be July 20 to October 31, with an increased number of listed shares resulting from the merger.
- To fail inclusion, it must fall below Hyundai Greenfood. There is a market cap gap of ₩300B, suggesting the possibility of inclusion in December is quite high.
- Lotte Confectionery may benefit from concentrated flow from an early stage, given that the outline of inclusion/exclusion candidates for the upcoming rebalancing is still relatively vague.
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