In today’s briefing:
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March
- March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)
- T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Expect ANOTHER Blandiloquent But Bletcherous Bump From Bain
- StubWorld: Wilmar’s All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows
- Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review – IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up
- Aequitas HK IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023
- KOSPI Superperformance Stocks (2019-2023)
- Ayala Corp Placement – While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock’s Momentum Has Been Strong
- Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March
- At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.
- We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.
- The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.
March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still
- No changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
- The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
- There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) but now less funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983). But it will continue being an interesting Nikkei 225 influence (for years to come).
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024
- There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.
T&K TOKA (4636 JP): Expect ANOTHER Blandiloquent But Bletcherous Bump From Bain
- In August when Bain announced that it would launch a Tender Offer for T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) I suggested in my first piece it was the wrong price.
- I suggested it needed another ¥1,000 added onto the price. If the ¥1,300 price Dalton initially indicated seemed low to T&K TOKA, another ¥100 doesn’t seem right.
- It took time. Now it looks like a tender offer launch is imminent. The stock has traded through terms for almost 5 months, but not by a lot.
StubWorld: Wilmar’s All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows
- Wilmar International (WIL SP)‘s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)) are both at all-time highs.
- Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review – IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up
- 2023 marked our eighth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia Pacific. In 2023, IPOs didn’t pick up much from the low base of 2022 while placements showed upward momentum.
- We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115 placements.
- For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.
Aequitas HK IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023
- In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs and placements in 2023.
- The following dataset includes all HK IPOs and placements above US$100m, which amounted to a total of 27 deals.
- The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.
KOSPI Superperformance Stocks (2019-2023)
- In this insight, we analyze the top 10 performing stocks in KOSPI in each of the past five years (2019-2023) as well as for this entire period.
- The top 10 performing stocks in KOSPI were up on average 310% in 2023, sharply outperforming KOSPI which was up 19%.
- There are some important takeaways from a review of the top 10 performing stocks in each of the five years in KOSPI, including market cap, sector rotation, and turnarounds.
Ayala Corp Placement – While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock’s Momentum Has Been Strong
- Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a portion of its stake in Ayala Corporation (AC PM).
- Despite being not explicitly well flagged, Mitsubishi had sold before back in Jan 2019, and in Mar 2018. Thus, we would argue that the deal here is somewhat expected.
- While the deal would represent 43 days of the stock’s three month ADV, the recent selldowns by Mitsubishi had held up in the first week.
Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
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