In today’s briefing:
- KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer
- HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
- KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: TEMC Added; Short Covering Expected in PoscoDX
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
- Buy Pasona As Dai-Ichi Life Amends Benefit One’s Tender Offer & Buyback Price
- Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea
- Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Consortium “Trumps” Ascendent’s Bid
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Posco DX Listing Transfer
- The KRX has preliminarily approved Posco DX (022100 KS)‘s listing transfer from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
- Posco DX (022100 KS) has announced that its stock will start trading on the KOSPI Market from the open on 2 January.
- We expect Temc (425040 KS) to replace Posco DX (022100 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the close on 28 December.
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)
- Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is expected to replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March review.
- Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.
- Short interest on Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in GDS Holdings (9698 HK).
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO
- It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
- The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
- There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.
KOSDAQ150 Adhoc Index Rebalance: TEMC Added; Short Covering Expected in PoscoDX
- Posco DX (022100 KS) will move from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market on 2 January. That means KOSDAQ150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) deletion at the close on 28 December.
- In line with our forecast, Temc (425040 KS) will be added to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) as a replacement.
- Short interest increased in Posco DX (022100 KS) following its inclusion in a global index and there should continue to be unwinding over the next week.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
- The adhoc KOSDAQ 150 Index rebalance and the regular Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalance will be implemented on Thursday and the SET 50 Index rebalance will be implemented on Friday.
- The review cutoff period for a whole bunch of indices ends on 29 December and the announcement of the results and implementation will take place early next year.
- There were big inflows to China ETFs and to Emerging Market ETFs including iShares Core Emerging Mar (IEMG US), Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO US) and iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US).
Buy Pasona As Dai-Ichi Life Amends Benefit One’s Tender Offer & Buyback Price
- Earlier this month, Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP) countered M3 with an unsolicited ¥1,800/share Offer of Equity Value TOB; followed by a Benefit One buyback to mop up Pasona‘s stake.
- Dai-Ichi has now amended the TOB Price for minorities in Benefit One to ¥2,123/share, and the tax-equivalent price of ¥1,800/share for Pasona would be ¥1,491 on the Buyback Tender, post-squeezeout.
- That price appears a bit higher for Pasona than expected, and therefore a bit lower for Benefit One minorities. Terms can still be bumped.
Investigating the Use of SSF Listing Events as Fresh Flow Trading Opportunities in Korea
- The spot prices of the newly listed SSFs generally exhibited a notable upward trend. This trend was consistently more pronounced in KOSDAQ-listed stocks compared to KOSPI-listed ones.
- Various factors, including actions by ETF operators, may contribute. Their SSF purchases could deepen contango, leading to temporary spot price increases through arb spread seekers anticipating this development.
- We should focus on a potentially consistent price pattern persisting before a sufficient learning effect accumulates. The tight schedule after July increases the likelihood of similar opportunities next March.
Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Consortium “Trumps” Ascendent’s Bid
- On the 13 December, Bloomberg reported that the Recco-led group consortium was weighing a revised Offer to be “significantly higher than the $26.50-a-share cash offer from Ascendent Capital”
- On the 24 December, a buyer consortium led by Dazheng Group announced an all-cash proposal of US$29.00/share, a 9.4% premium to Ascendent’s Offer. “Credible” financing is in place.
- “The Consortium stands ready to engage with the Board“. The Board should engage. The one curious aspect of this latest Offer is the apparent absence of Recco’s involvement.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly
- SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.
- SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.
- Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys
- I tally 50 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals discussed this week: Seedheiwa (1739 JP)‘s (now Meldia DC) Tender Offer; and Boart Longyear (BLY AU)‘s ignominious exit.
- Key updates took place on: Orecorp (ORR AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), IJTT (7315 JP), Shidax Corp (4837 JP), Ohizumi Mfg (6618 JP), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).
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