In today’s briefing:
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
- HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)
- HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
- SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, HSCEI, HSTECH, Haidilao/Super Hi, CSI REIT
- Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
- Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
- Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion
- Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
- We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
- There could be an addition to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)‘s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
- PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)‘s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)
- Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK) could replace Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.
- One way turnover is estimated at 2.1% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.7bn. Passive trackers will need to buy nearly 10x ADV on Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK).
- After being deleted from the MSCI China Index at the November SAIR, this could be the next major index deletion for Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK).
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)
- Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, we see China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) replacing China Feihe (6186 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 1.64% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.02bn with passives needing to buy 1x ADV on China Shenhua Energy and selling 1.7x ADV on China Feihe.
- The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures by over 3 DIPS. Could be more if China Shenhua pays a special.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
- The rebalance implementation of the KOSPI2, KOSDQ150, CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50 and other indices took place on 8/9 December. Plus MSCI/FTSE deletes due to Northbound Stock Connect changes.
- Friday will see the implementation of the FTSE All-World/All-Cap, EPRA Nareit, S&P/ASX, KLCI, FTSE China and Sensex indices. The FTSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index will have the largest flows.
- Big weekly redemptions from the Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS), ChinaAMC China 50 ETF (510050 CH) and IShares Core MSCI Asia Ex Japan ETF (3010 HK).
SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out
- Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index.
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
- The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We’d use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, HSCEI, HSTECH, Haidilao/Super Hi, CSI REIT
- It was a busy Friday with the implementation of the December rebalance for multiple indices. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF will continue to rebalance over the next 4 days.
- The coming week should be relatively quiet with the announcement of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) changes expected.
- There were large inflows to ETFs focused on China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan. There were inflows to Hang Seng H Share Index ETF and outflows from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong.
Nojima (7419) Launches Buyout of Conexio (9422)
- Nojima Corp (7419 JP) is buying out Conexio Corp (9422 JP) majority owner Itochu Corp (8001 JP) along with minorities. At a 59% premium, it looks good.
- However, in terms of normalised EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF multiple, this is not expensive.
- And while the major seller/target and friendlies are oh so close, the register is more interesting than the yuho top 10 shareholder list suggests.
Swire Now Buying Back B Shares Only
- In August this year, Swire Pacific started a buyback programme for up to HK$4.0 billion worth of their shares (Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)).
- The shares went up. And B briefly outperformed A, but since then, the B/A ratio has fallen and my impression was Swire may have been misinterpreting the buyback rules.
- Swire had been buying both every day. But they’ve been Buying Bs but no As for the last ten days in a row. This begs a few questions.
Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion
- Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) will Dual Primary list on the HKEX (388 HK) by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.
- Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should be added to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.
- Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.
Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024
- The all-inclusive CGT will be implemented in 2025. The current partial capital gains tax will be maintained until 2024. And the STT will drop from 0.23% to 0.15% in 2024.
- The critical cause of an arb opportunity on ex-date price correction+dividend yield has been the yearend selling flow on T-1 ex-date for the purpose of tax avoidance by majority shareholders.
- So, from this year to 2024, we should keep an eye on this arbitrage opportunity, which will continue to arise.
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