In today’s briefing:
- 2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!
- LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
- Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name
- ETF Arbitrage in Korea: Names Suitable for Pair Trades
- HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher
- Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)
- Anycolor Placement – First Placement Since Listing but Should Do Fine
- StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO
- Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?
- Tencent/Netease: January Game Approval Shows Tencent Playing Catching Up
2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!
- “VTuber” (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
- Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
- The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.
LG Energy IPO Lock-Up – Last of the Lockups at US$3bn
- LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) (LGES) raised US$10.8bn in its South Korea IPO, after pricing at the top-end of the IPO price range.
- The stock was listed on 27th Jan 22. Its one-year lockup is set to expire soon.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note
Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering – Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name
- In late December, I wrote 2023 High Conviction – Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX – And How!. Shares closed at ¥6,470 that day. Then went to ¥5,500.
- They have since rebounded some, and now 3 pre-IPO VC investors have announced an overseas offering. This was NOT unexpected. They need more shares to get their TSE Prime listing.
- The Offering is 3.27mm shares which is 5-6 days of volume. This lifts the TSE Prime inclusion amount, eventually, but the story is still about growth and model.
ETF Arbitrage in Korea: Names Suitable for Pair Trades
- As for the one using the creation/redemption mechanism, the tracking error (market value – NAV) is still too tight to call this an arbitrage opening.
- Then, at this point, we need to pay attention to ETF arbitrage from a pair trade perspective. There are a total of 3 pairs we can consider for this.
- The mean reversion cycle is still not short. However, the diversion range is not extensive, so we can aim for a relatively stable setup in a market with increased volatility.
HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Foreign Holdings Move Lower; Foreign Room Higher
- Foreign shareholding in HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped over the December quarter resulting in higher foreign room.
- The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when we expect there will be large buying from MSCI trackers.
- The merger (and the timing of implementation) will have implications for changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the forthcoming rebalances.
Aequitas HK IPOs Sponsor + GC Performance (2019-2022)
- In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for HK IPOs from 2019-2022.
- The following dataset includes all HK IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 173 deals.
- The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.
Anycolor Placement – First Placement Since Listing but Should Do Fine
- Some shareholders of Anycolor (5032 JP) are looking to raise US$151.5m via an International Only Follow-on offering.
- The deal is a relatively small one to digest in terms of ADV, representing only 4 days of three-month ADV. Although, it is still 10% of current mcap.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
StubWorld: CPALL Trading “Cheap” To MAKRO
- 7-11 play CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor versus cash & carry subsidiary Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB).
- Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Hanwha Aerospace: A Surprise in MSCI’s February QCIR?
- Hanwha Aerospace is still narrowly across the borderline. It is especially painful that the share price was corrected by more than 4% today.
- But suppose the cutoff MC is set at less than ₩2.7T, and Aerospace succeeds in recovering slightly. In that case, it will likely manage to come within the borderline.
- Given that the preemptive flow must not have been significant and the profit forecast has been upwards until recently, a price shooting may appear at the time of the announcement.
Tencent/Netease: January Game Approval Shows Tencent Playing Catching Up
- China just announced game approval for January batch. The number of games approved is slightly higher than the previous three months.
- Pace of China game approval stays flattish, at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
- Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game each. Overall Tencent is still behind its peers since the approval resumed.
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