Daily BriefsMost Read

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Shinko Electric Industries, Pasona Group, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, JD.com , NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry
  • TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t
  • Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up
  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals
  • TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color
  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%
  • JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low


Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

By Travis Lundy

  • Last autumn, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.
  • KKR’s own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).
  • There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details. 

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook
  • Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi & foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
  • SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD & Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!

Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.
  • Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.
  • Hence, the government’s official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto

By Arun George


Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals

By David Blennerhassett


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
  • TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management’s comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
  • For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq Composite extended its decline for a sixth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak in over a year, as Nvidia’s plunge exacerbated market concerns
  • Paramount Global’s shares surged over 10% after reports of discussions between Sony Pictures Entertainment, Apollo Global Management, and Paramount for a joint buyout bid.
  • Sekisui House completed a $4.9 billion acquisition of U.S.-based MDC Holdings, expanding its U.S. homebuilding operations to 16 states

JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. 
  • Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.
  • A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government’s announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying & increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
  • Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode – yet.
  • BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual “kink-in-the-curve”. Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +9.2% Premium, Major Breakdown From Previous Historically Extreme High
  • UMC: -1.9% Discount, Is Near Low End of Historical Range
  • ASE: +10.4%; ADR Short Interest Jumps to Very High Level vs. History

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