In today’s briefing:
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Altium to Trigger Two Intra-Review Replacements in July
- End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 55 Companies in Korea in July 2024
- Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jun) – China TCM, Henlius, Midea RE, MMG, Aisin, Sanil, Shift Up
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Henlius Bio, Mideal Real Estate, Malaysia Airports, S Line, Best World
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rangebound; UMC Hits Upper End of Range
- Ohayo Japan | First Half Done
- TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade
- Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) – Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio
Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC
- No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser’s proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
- Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They’ll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
- The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) – so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: Altium to Trigger Two Intra-Review Replacements in July
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
- In July 2024, a couple of important Australian M&A deals could close and one of them could trigger intra-review additions for ASX 100 and ASX 200.
- Separately, we see one ASX 100 change and one ASX 200 change during the September 2024 rebalance. For ASX 300, there could be 13 ADDs and 6 DELs.
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 55 Companies in Korea in July 2024
- We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 55 stocks in Korea in July 2024, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
- These 55 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in July and could underperform relative to the market.
- The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in July include Lunit, Mezzion Pharma, and DS Dansuk.
Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jun) – China TCM, Henlius, Midea RE, MMG, Aisin, Sanil, Shift Up
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: MMG (1208 HK) rights issue, Aisin (7259 JP) placement, Sanil Electric (062040 KS) IPO, and Shift Up (462870 KS) IPO.
- Event-Driven developments: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK), Best World International (BEST SP).
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, Henlius Bio, Mideal Real Estate, Malaysia Airports, S Line, Best World
- I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- One. new deal was discussed this week: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s cash/scrip Offer. Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) also fielded a “Partial Scheme”.
- Key updates took place on: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK), S Line Co Ltd (9078 JP), Best World International (BEST SP) .
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rangebound; UMC Hits Upper End of Range
- TSMC: +16.7% Premium, Has Remained Rangebound; Watching for Over 20% or Under 15%
- UMC: +2% Premium, Upper End of Trading Range, Can Consider Shorting
- ASE: +9.9% Premium; Spread Could Have Further Room to Bounce Higher
Ohayo Japan | First Half Done
- U.S. stocks dipped on Friday as investors processed economic data signaling slowing inflation. Nike down 20%.
- Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and KDDI will collaborate on developing generative AI
- NTT DATA plans to launch multiple satellites by 2026 to create a space-based observation network, enhancing disaster monitoring and national security
TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index Rebalance: 12 Changes & US$4bn Round-Trip Trade
- There are 12 changes for the TIP Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight Index in June/July. The Fuh Hwa Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight ETF (00929 TW) has an AUM of US$7.16bn.
- One-Way turnover is estimated at 35% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 134.7bn (US$4.1bn). There are 8 stocks that could have over 5x ADV to trade.
- The ETF started rebalancing their portfolio on Friday and will continue to trade the stock over the next 7 trading days.
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jul) – Henlius, China TCM, GA Pack, CPMC, Asia Cement, Great Eastern
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Asia Cement China (743 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Infocom Corp (4348 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP).
(Mostly) Asia M&A, June 2024: Fancl, Capitol Health, Infocom,Jeisys Medical, Nagatanien, Henlius Bio
- For the month of June 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~52%. The average premium YTD is ~47%.
- This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.
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