Most Read: J&T Global Express , Amvis Holdings Inc, Great Wall Motor, Pou Chen, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Elite Commercial REIT, HMM Co., Ltd., Japan Post Holdings, Nidec Corp and more

• J&T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
• The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
• J&T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 

• Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
• This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider’s data, and one Very Large Flow.
• I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 

• A week after the State Council issued “Several Opinions” (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC announced Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.
• They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.
• RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the “To Do” list “as soon as possible and smoothly.” Watch impact on H/A Pairs.

• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
• Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.
• My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).

• Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO.
• SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.
• We have looked at the company’s performance and valuations in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• In Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield we conducted a fireside chat with Elite Commercial REIT.
• Elite Commercial REIT is a Singapore real estate investment trust established with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in commercial real-estate related assets in the United Kingdom.
• The company has recently expanded its strategy to look at other commercial assets in the UK, beyond its existing portfolio of assets rented by the UK government.

This Insight is part of the Smartkarma Corporate Webinar series, supported by SGX through the Investor Education Fund.

• Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.
• A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.
• The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).

• Postal price hike approved  swinging the Post business from a loss to a profit
• Cancellation of 7.36% of outstanding shares from the latest buyback
• Management Plan to be released in May will provide further details on improving ROE and PB

• Nidec reported a solid set of quarterly numbers, except for another huge structural loss in its EV business. 
• Nidec saw sales growth and operating profitability improvements in all other segments
• We continue to think that Nidec is attractively priced at under 20x EV/ EBIT given structural growth drivers

• In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.
• All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.
• In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises.