In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Holdings To Effectively “Re-IPO” Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
- Japan Post Bank Possible Placement – Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO – Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows
- Japan Post Bank Placement – Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback
- HSTECH Index Rebalance: Weibo Replaces Ming Yuan Cloud; Big Inflows on Li Auto & XPeng
- STAR50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes as Adds Bigly Outperform Deletes
- Fujitec (6406) EGM – It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?
- ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) – Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS
- Amvis Holdings (7071) – Large-Ish Offering, Large-Ish TOPIX Inclusion
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): BIG Offering Supported by Buybacks & Passive Flow
Japan Post Holdings To Effectively “Re-IPO” Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
- Overnight a Reuters article suggested Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) had started talks to sell a near 30%) stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), the first sale since IPO.
- A sale is designed with two aims: 1) the TSE requires a 35% tradable share ratio, and 2) JPH is supposed to lower holdings in JPB to <50% by 2025.
- This event may include a buyback, and has moving parts, and flows on the back end, but fundamentally a sale would effectively constitute a “re-IPO” of the shares.
Japan Post Bank Possible Placement – Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to trim its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) by a third, as per Reuters.
- The deal would be worth around US$9bn and could come as soon as next month.
- In this note, we talk about the news and take an early look at the possible selldown.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO – Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced the mooted offering by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) whereby they will sell 29% of the bank to go from 89% to 60%.
- There are two buybacks – one pre offering and one after – which is an attempt to mitigate impact. This creates interesting but complicated strategy possibilities. Lots of details here.
- Big picture, this is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln at today’s close including greenshoe. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x current float.
Japan Post Bank Placement – Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) plans to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
- Initial news of the deal broke last week, and we had a look in, Japan Post Bank Possible Placement – Here We Go Again with the US$9bn Overhang.
- In this note, we talk about the deal structure and impact.
HSTECH Index Rebalance: Weibo Replaces Ming Yuan Cloud; Big Inflows on Li Auto & XPeng
- Weibo Corp (9898 HK) replaces Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 10 March.
- Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 8.92% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,078m at the close on 10 March.
- There will be big buying on Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) due to a change in the index handling methodology for Dual Primary listings.
STAR50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes as Adds Bigly Outperform Deletes
- The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in March.
- One way turnover is estimated at 4.95% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,413m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.
- The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over multiple time periods. There will be pre-positions on the stocks and those could be unwound over the next week or two.
Fujitec (6406) EGM – It WAS a Close-Run Thing, Glass Lewis Was the Big Winner, and SCANDAL?
- The Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM where activist Oasis Management wanted to spill the independent board members took place Friday.
- Results were mixed, but generally a success for Oasis, with 9 of the 13 votes won. Preliminary analysis of “uncertain voter” split interesting, and “Glass Lewis Effect” stronger than expected.
- The real shocker, however, was a footnote at the end of the announcement. This could (and should) have further repercussions.
ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) – Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS
- Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
- On the IPO front, Pertamina Geothermal Energy‘s listing kicked of what is shaping up to be a busy 2023 for ASEAN IPOs
- There were a few placements across the region but the biggest news was of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s planned selldown by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)
Amvis Holdings (7071) – Large-Ish Offering, Large-Ish TOPIX Inclusion
- On Monday 20 February, nursing home, nursing and disability care services operator Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) announced it would see a Secondary Offering of 10 million shares.
- It also announced that it would move to TSE Prime on 14 March.
- This increases Real World Float by quite a bit – about 40% – but it also leads to an end-April TOPIX Inclusion.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): BIG Offering Supported by Buybacks & Passive Flow
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to reduce its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) from 89% to 60%. That is over US$9bn at the last close.
- The placement is supported by buybacks (ToSTNeT-3 and on-market) that will absorb some of the offering. Then there is the passive buying that will absorb a third of the offering.
- One of the key short-term supports will be the exercise of the over-allotment of the Japan offering. But that will require persuading retail investors to buy into the offering.
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