In today’s briefing:
- The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)
- Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review – Not An Easy Rebal 🤨
- Japan Post Bank (7182) – The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment
- Japan Post Holdings (6178) Starts Its Bigly Buyback With a Sale from the MOF-Boffins
- Where & How to Check CFD Trading Data Starting Sept 1st
- MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete, One Close Delete & Capping
- MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes
- Chindata Backs Bain’s Revised Terms
- Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios
- Appier (4180) | Be Happier
The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)
- This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it.
- We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations.
- We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here.
Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review – Not An Easy Rebal 🤨
- The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) doesn’t get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.
- One way, Socionext (6526) and Mercari (4385) are ADDs. Another way, it looks like Nitori Holdings (9843) and ZOZO Inc (3092) or Ryohin Keikaku (7453). FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.
Japan Post Bank (7182) – The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) was effectively re-IPOed in March when Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) offered more than a BILLION shares against the 400mm shares then in float.
- It was a huge offering. A huge increase in float. Lots of immediate liquidity. A PERFECT opportunity for the TSE to do an ad hoc FFW change. But they didn’t.
- Then in June they lowered the FFW (on a technicality). That leaves a big upweight in October. In this insight we measure the opportunity.
Japan Post Holdings (6178) Starts Its Bigly Buyback With a Sale from the MOF-Boffins
- In March 2023, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) sold ¥1.1trln of shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), lowering its stake considerably, raising float. There will be a TOPIX upweight.
- In May, with earnings, they announced their intention to buy back ¥300bn of shares or up to 10% of shares out. Today, they announced the details. ¥300bn through March end.
- In a ¥300bn ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow, the govt will sell back ¥105.7bn. That leaves a residual worth examining. So we examine.
Where & How to Check CFD Trading Data Starting Sept 1st
- The CFD balance information (both overall and individual stock) will be provided by KOFIA and KOSCOM, starting from September 1st.
- September 1st also marks the day when local brokerages that temporarily suspended CFD trading services will resume them.
- With the disclosure of individual stock CFD balances starting from September 1st, there’s a high probability of another volatility turning point.
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Delete, One Close Delete & Capping
- There should be one deletion from the index in September. And there could be another deletion. And there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
- The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.12% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m. There is only one stock with over A$5m to trade.
- Following the spinoff, Abacus Group (ABG AU) and Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) will be the lowest ranked index constituents and at risk of deletion from the index.
MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes
- There could be two deletes for the index in September. There are two other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
- Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of around 2.7% and a one-way trade of A$51m.
- Short interest has been increasing on Charter Hall (CHC AU) and JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU) and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.
Chindata Backs Bain’s Revised Terms
- Back on the 7 June, Chindata Group (CD US) announced Bain Capital’s NBIO to buy all shares of the Chinese data center provider it does not already own for $8/ADS.
- On the 13 July, Chindata announced that China Merchants Capital has made an NBIO at $9.20/ADS.
- Now Bain has entered into a definitive agreement with Chindata at US$8.60/ADS. Bain holds more than 2/3s of Chindata to vote this through. And there is no PRC regulator approval.
Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios
- Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was deleted from local and global indices following its prolonged trading suspension from April 2021 to September 2022.
- Following the resumption of trading, Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was added to the HSCI in March and subsequently to Southbound Stock Connect.
- The stock should be bought by global passive trackers over the next few months and there should be substantial passive inflows.
Appier (4180) | Be Happier
- Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1
- Gross margin expansion to 51.3% on improving AI algorithm performance
- Stock down around 20% over past couple of months, No change to bullish growth forecasts.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
