Most Read: Fancl Corp, Toyota Motor, Alps Logistics, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Kokusai Electric , MoneyHero , Apple , Doosan Bobcat Inc, Nikkei 225 and more

• The Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) Tender Offer to buy out minorities in Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes today. Or at least the current one does. 
• The original deal announced was light, and the stock has traded above terms since the announcement, with one fund buying up to 7.94%.
• I expect Kirin to extend and bump next week, or bump/extend now, depending on their visibility on Fancl Q1. 

• In May when shares were trading near ¥3,500-3,600, Toyota announced a ¥1trln buyback. When shares fell, they announced a Tender Offer Buyback at a large discount (¥2,781/share). 
• Subsequently, the shares fell very sharply on Thursday 1 August, then again Friday and yesterday. That put shares WELL below the Tender Offer Price. That creates possible opportunity. 
• This insight discusses modalities (talk to your advisor for specific advice/info) who might do what and why. It sets parameters. But I think Toyota is cheap here.

• As global market roil, clean M&A deals come into focus.
• This insight briefly summarises those transactions in Asia/Oceania which are expected to comfortably complete, irrespective of the background noise. 
• Standout deals include APM Human Services (APM AU), Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), I’Rom Group (2372 JP), and Arvida (ARV NZ).

• What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in “advanced stage”, August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. 
• The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
• According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don’t forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.

• IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. 
• Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. 
• Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. 

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome MoneyHero Group’s CEO and Director, Mr Rohith Murthy and CFO, Mr Hao Qian.

In the upcoming webinar, Rohith and Hao will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Ishan Majumdar. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 13 August 2024, 15:00 SGT. 

About MoneyHero Group

MoneyHero Group connects people to a better financial future. The mission at MoneyHero Group is to make all of life’s financial decisions a time saving and rewarding experience. MoneyHero Group educates consumers about personal finance, helps them decide which products are best suited for their needs, and facilitates getting the product. They connect financial institutions with their target customers and help them achieve their customer acquisition objectives.

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Apple (AAPL US) switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.
• To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.
• Apple (AAPL US) will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US). 

• Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
• Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
• The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. 

• On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
• Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
• Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 

• The market turmoil over the last few trading sessions has not been kind to a simple index rebalance strategy of buying the forecast adds and selling the forecast deletes.
• The overall returns and stock specific returns indicate that trades are more crowded in some indices as compared to others and traders should consider that when position sizing.
• Anecdotally, periods of negative returns are followed by periods of strong returns for the strategy as weak hands are shaken out of their positions.