In today’s briefing:
- PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Higher Free Float Means Fewer Changes
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
- HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)
- MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes
- HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)
- MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
- MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion
- Celltrion Group Companies – Sharp Increase in Dividends
- Celltrion Siblings Announced Dividends: Trading Based on Past Patterns
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Higher Free Float Means Fewer Changes
- From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) increases from 15% to 20%.
- We see a high probability of DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) replacing Emperador (EMP PM) in the index at the upcoming rebalance.
- There are a few other potential changes to the index and the passive flow on the stocks will be material.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
- We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
- There could be an addition to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)‘s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
- PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)‘s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.
HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace Ming Yuan Cloud (909 HK)
- Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK) could replace Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) in the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.
- One way turnover is estimated at 2.1% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.7bn. Passive trackers will need to buy nearly 10x ADV on Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK).
- After being deleted from the MSCI China Index at the November SAIR, this could be the next major index deletion for Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK).
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes
- Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals (TIE AU) are adds while Fresnillo (FRES LN), Galiano Gold (GAU US), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN) and Novo Resources (NVO CN) are deletes.
- One way turnover is estimated at 4.3% resulting in a one-way trade of US$163m. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on 24 stocks.
- Largest inflows are on Filo Mining (FIL CN) and Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) while largest outflows are on Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN) and Centerra Gold (CG CN).
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)
- Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, we see China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) replacing China Feihe (6186 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 1.64% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.02bn with passives needing to buy 1x ADV on China Shenhua Energy and selling 1.7x ADV on China Feihe.
- The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures by over 3 DIPS. Could be more if China Shenhua pays a special.
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
- As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.
- There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.
- One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
- The rebalance implementation of the KOSPI2, KOSDQ150, CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50 and other indices took place on 8/9 December. Plus MSCI/FTSE deletes due to Northbound Stock Connect changes.
- Friday will see the implementation of the FTSE All-World/All-Cap, EPRA Nareit, S&P/ASX, KLCI, FTSE China and Sensex indices. The FTSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index will have the largest flows.
- Big weekly redemptions from the Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS), ChinaAMC China 50 ETF (510050 CH) and IShares Core MSCI Asia Ex Japan ETF (3010 HK).
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion
- Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
- Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
- There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.
Celltrion Group Companies – Sharp Increase in Dividends
- Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, and Celltrion Pharm all announced much higher dividend payments for this year as compared to last year.
- Based on the new dividend payments, the dividend yields are as follows: (Celltrion Inc – 4.2%, Celltrion Healthcare – 4.2%, and Celltrion Pharm – 5%).
- Merger of three companies is likely to have long-term positive impact on the their share prices. Although exact timing is uncertain, 2023 could be the year of this merger.
Celltrion Siblings Announced Dividends: Trading Based on Past Patterns
- The three Celltrion companies are showing the same pattern of boosting share prices towards the yearend T-1 ex-date. This isn’t unique to Celltrion, but the intensity is high for them.
- Celltrion’s yearend dividend effect has an inverse correlation with the market’s overall performance. Fortunately, this year’s market-wide performance was the worst in the past five years.
- For this year, the dividend yield isn’t bad either, swing on Dec 17 to T-1 ex-date or day trade on T-1 ex-date should provide juicy returns based on past patterns.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
