Most Read: Chunbo, Shinsei Bank, HDFC Limited, Tesla Motors, EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H, EC Healthcare, Blibli, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index, Total Access Communication and more

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts Chris Redl (SC Capital) and Sameer Taneja (Investics Research), who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.

The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.

Chris Redl has over 20 years’ experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS & Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks & their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.

Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction & heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.

Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.

• LG Chem’s deletion is almost a done deal. The pouch-type pack goes to LG Energy, and the cathode business is not big enough to beat L&F.
• Chunbo is an additive field that this index has not included so far. So, Chunbo will be added as a new addition rather than replacing someone else.
• SK IE Tech is quite tricky. The key is to see separator and elecfoil as the same field. If so, SK IET is likely to replace Iljin Materials.

• Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was “planning to take Shinsei private.”
• This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei’s.
• It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.

• Foreign shareholding in HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) has inched higher while moving a tad lower on HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN). Overall, no change in foreign room on the merged entity. 
• The merger could complete in Q1 2023 and there could be sizeable buying from MSCI trackers. There should be no change for FTSE trackers.
• The recently announced market consultation by NSE Indices should result in no buying/selling from passive trackers; there will be some additions to the NIFTY Index and Nifty Next 50 Index.

• Tesla’s Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn’t seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.
• The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. 
• On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla’s weak Q3 results throughout next week. 

• Electronics play and property developer EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK)‘s Merger by Absorption was approved by H-class shareholders yesterday. 
• The vote was not a foregone conclusion – 7.05% of total H-shares voted against the deal.
• Today is the last day of trading in EVOC shares. Payment is expected on or before the 7 November. 

• EC Healthcare (2138 HK) expects to achieve a record-high sales volume of no less than HK$1.8 in H1FY23, representing a no less than 17% y/y increase.  
• The company is optimistic about its business development as the Hong Kong government’s pandemic policy stance is heading towards “normalization” and recently further relaxed quarantine arrangements for inbound travelers.
• With the economy reopening, the company is in a position to reap the benefit of M&A worth HK$641 million completed in FY22.  

• Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
• We have previously discussed the IPO in Blibli IPO: The Bull Case and Blibli IPO: The Bear Case.
• In this note, we compare Blibli vs its peers’ relevant businesses across monthly site visits, app downloads, social engagement, GTV, take rates and segmental margins.   

• October 18th we reduced our long basket (SPX, NKY, ASX, SX5E) and added back to our short basket (NDX, DAX, HSI, Taiwan, Kospi) for a final leg down/new lows.
• We recommend adding to our short group on upticks into Friday ahead of a harder swoon lower next week and into our cycle low date near October 30th.
• Our long basket is showing relative strength outside of the SPX and a key alignment we are monitoring to market the upcoming risk cycle low near Oct 30.

• The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) to merge. 
• The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.
• The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.