In today’s briefing:
- SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀
- PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February
- Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1
- KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations
- Shin Kong/Taishin Merger – Proceeding Apace
- Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN): Facing the Passive Boot; But Who Will Buy?
- InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline
- Vesync (2148 HK): 33.3% Premium For An Illiquid Arb – Yep, This Is Done.
- Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)’s Unconditional MGO. It Is What It Is
- Charted Insights: India’s Fundraising Booms and Market Cycles; A Data-Driven Analysis
SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes; Cal Comp🚀
- There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 December.
- All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be positioning in all the stocks.
- Cal Comp Electronics Thailand (CCET TB) will have the largest passive buying a percentage of free float and could be the stock to watch.
PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in February
- The review period for the February rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) ends in two weeks.
- There could be two changes for the index with passive trackers needing to trade between 23-64x ADV in the stocks.
- The passive buying is a lot larger than the passive selling, there will be funding outflows for the other index constituents; some stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1
- There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
- There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
- Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.
KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations
- The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
- A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
- Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.
Shin Kong/Taishin Merger – Proceeding Apace
- Once shareholders of Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) agreed to the merger two months ago, that meant an FSC submission would come shortly.
- It came on 3rd December. Normally it takes two months, but can be extended. It appears the TFTC submission (which is considered wholly separately) was made as early as September.
- This should get approved within the timeframe or not long afterwards. There is one known “document” missing from the application as of submission, but it shouldn’t be a problem.
Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN): Facing the Passive Boot; But Who Will Buy?
- Passive global index trackers sold Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) in November following a big drop in free float for the stock.
- There could be more selling in Adani Green Energy in February as the stock is deleted from the same large global index due to failing free float market cap thresholds.
- With the company at the center of the U.S indictment focused on bribery charges, active foreign and local investors will be wary of buying the stock.
InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$30.86/share, the low end of the range. Over half the shares have been allotted to cornerstone investors.
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect early March.
- Inclusion in global indices will take place in 2026 and there will be supply in mid- and late-2025 following lock-up expiries.
Vesync (2148 HK): 33.3% Premium For An Illiquid Arb – Yep, This Is Done.
- When Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliances, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from the Yang family, led by chairman/CEO, controlling ~69.04%, was expected.
- And on cue, that is what unfolded. HK$5.60/share, a premium of 33.33%, by way of a Scheme. The price is final. A scrip option afforded. No dividends.
- The blocking stake is 1.675%. Expect around fourth months to complete. This is done.
Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)’s Unconditional MGO. It Is What It Is
- Back on the 27th November, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) (SDHG) entered into SPAs with two Citic Securities (6030 HK)-backed funds, holding 13.52% in Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK).
- The SPAs were completed on the 27th December, elevating SDHG’s stake to 56.97%, triggering an unconditional MGO. The Offer Price is HK$1.78/share, the same as that under the SPAs.
- The premium to last close is just 7.23%. But don’t expect a bump in terms. SDHG intends to maintain Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy’s listing.
Charted Insights: India’s Fundraising Booms and Market Cycles; A Data-Driven Analysis
- Periods of market euphoria often create fertile ground for substantial fundraising activity, where companies—both established and speculative—seize the opportunity to raise capital.
- IPO surges and other equity fundraisers reflect heightened investor confidence and an increased appetite for risk.
- However, as history shows, such periods of exuberance are often harbingers of steep market corrections.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Analytics and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
