In today’s briefing:
- STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher
- Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?
- HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
- Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
- A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
- HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
- Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher
- The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
- We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
- With a big jump in tracking AUM over the last few months, passives will need to trade a lot of stock on implementation date.
Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?
- Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
- 2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.
- Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?
HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
- HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO price has been determined at 83,400 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
- A total of 2,021 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 201 to 1. HD Hyundai Marine Solution will start trading on 8 May 2024.
- Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, which represents an upside of 18% from the IPO price.
Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
- Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline “*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES“
- That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester’s filing.
- Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren’t always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.
A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
- In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months.
- We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week, and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs.
- On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.
HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
- In RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH Relationships, Travis Lundy discussed the forthcoming inclusion of RMB dual counters in the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs.
- This is but one of the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the CSRC last Friday.
- The other four measures include ETFs, improving mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong, and the inclusion of REITs. This insight discusses the latter.
Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV
- Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
- The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ).
- With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
- I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
- M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
- There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
- Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
- There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.
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