In today’s briefing:
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
- ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June
- KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends
- Local Institutions’ Value-Up Momentum Moves: Watch the July Tax Reform Bill
- Weekly Deals Digest (05 May) – L’Occitane, C&F Logistics, KFC Japan, Austal, Hyundai Marine, ZEEKR
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: L’Occitane, KFC Holdings Japan, CSR, Azure Minerals, CIMC, Chilled & Frozen
- S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
- There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
- The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ).
- With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
- Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
- There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
- The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
- There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
- Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
- There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.
ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance
- Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)‘s holding in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.
- The Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)/ Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) merger could lead to an index change early June.
- Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)‘s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU) could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June
- The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
- The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends
- With the review period complete, there could be up to 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
- Even with 15 changes, there is some sector balance among the potential adds and deletes with big churn in the Information Technology sector.
- The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the review period but performance has flattened over the last month.
Local Institutions’ Value-Up Momentum Moves: Watch the July Tax Reform Bill
- MMAS prioritizes dividends over low-PBR, key to government’s Value-up momentum. Despite initial market disappointment, dividend stocks rebounded, underscoring continued investor interest.
- Government officials are collecting historic dividend data to simulate separate taxation impact of dividend income, likely to be included in July’s tax reform bill for National Assembly approval.
- Local institutions focus on dividend-centric Value-up trading, targeting stocks with high cash reserves and dividends. Strategy needed to manage market impact pre-tax reform bill in July.
Weekly Deals Digest (05 May) – L’Occitane, C&F Logistics, KFC Japan, Austal, Hyundai Marine, ZEEKR
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and ZEEKR (ZK US) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: L’Occitane (973 HK), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Austal Ltd (ASB AU).
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: L’Occitane, KFC Holdings Japan, CSR, Azure Minerals, CIMC, Chilled & Frozen
- Tally 47 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s VGO from major shareholder, Reinold Geiger. A deal for KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP) is apparently imminent.
- Key updates took place on: CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP).
S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add
- Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)‘s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.
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