In this briefing:
- Preview: UK Disinflation Again in Nov-18
- Huawei/Trade Truce Progress/ Made in China 2025 /China Cyber Threat/Stimulus
- Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI
- Philippine Monetary Policy: Relief from No Rate Hike
- Preview: BoE Stuck in the Brexit Quagmire
1. Preview: UK Disinflation Again in Nov-18
- UK CPI inflation has been biased to disappoint expectations this year, and I am marginally below Consensus for the upcoming Nov-18 at 2.24% y-o-y.
- Recreation and transport prices subtract the most from my projections, but food price judgements were the overlaid assessment that triggered my forecasts to round down recently. Observed changes in about 12,000 prices drove this decision.
2. Huawei/Trade Truce Progress/ Made in China 2025 /China Cyber Threat/Stimulus
China News That Matters
- Canada caught in the crossfire
- Soybean sales and other good news
- Downgrading the master plan. Or not
- China: the greatest threat to US privacy?
- Real estate firms seek bond green light
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
3. Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI
The Prabowo-Uno campaign are focusing on Central Java while elements on both fringes of the religious spectrum debate poligamy and whether Widodo is ‘criminalizing’ clerics. The KPK is investigating the head of the State Power Company (PLN) after court convicted BlackGold owner Johannes Kotjo. Information Minister Rudiantara wants IPOs for four giant startups. BI cited positive macro indicators, including 13% October credit expansion, but the World Bank warned that FDI inflows are too low.
4. Philippine Monetary Policy: Relief from No Rate Hike
- In yesterday’s Monetary Board (MB) meeting (December 13), policymakers decided to maintain the policy rate at 4.75%. Receding price pressures on easing constraints on food supply, steady inflation expectations and BSP’s inflation forecasts showing a lower path over the policy horizon supported an unchanged policy setting.
- The MB stated that its pause also allows time for the recent policy rate adjustments to ‘work their way through the economy’. We interpret this as giving time for the recent tightening actions (cumulative 175bp rate hike), low oil price effects, and liberal rice imports with the passage of the rice tarrification bill to work their magic in anchoring inflation expectations to within the BSP’s preferred range.
- We sense the risk of large macro imbalances next year with a trade deficit of 15%-16% of GDP, could spook inflation expectations. This could happen with a large trade gap provoking PHP to drift to historic highs of 55-56 even with an easing inflation print. Inflation expectations may take its time reverting to the BSP’s inflation target band. While there’s risk of a BSP rate adjustment if macro imbalances worsen, it won’t be of the ‘sequential’ kind that we witnessed this year.
- While a weaker PHP outlook would prevail next year, risk of interest rates staying elevated would be driven more by potential liquidity tightness in line with widening investment-savings gap of both the public and private sectors (defines the larger trade/current shortfall). It’s a value proposition if ever the long end of the curve drifts up to 8% if not more. A compressed yield curve in which bond yields slip to less than 7% would constitute a clear sell signal in our view.
5. Preview: BoE Stuck in the Brexit Quagmire
- Excess UK demand and inflation continue to put hawkish pressures on the MPC, but Brexit uncertainty justifies postponing a more hawkish signal or action.
- I expect the MPC to vote for no change in policy unanimously and not prepare for a Feb-19 rate hike. A May move is a more likely but still state-dependent outcome.
