Brief Macro: Widodo’s Generals Take Fire / Anti-Foreign Rhetoric Takes Toll / Land Hampers Adhi’s LRT / MRT Near and more

In this briefing:

1. Widodo’s Generals Take Fire / Anti-Foreign Rhetoric Takes Toll / Land Hampers Adhi’s LRT / MRT Near

1. Widodo’s Generals Take Fire / Anti-Foreign Rhetoric Takes Toll / Land Hampers Adhi’s LRT / MRT Near

Sparring remains lively in the presidential campaign, with the Prabowo camp targeting a liability for Widodo: retired generals in the cabinet.  But Prabowo is still campaigning ineffectively and defections of allied governors shows that some in his camp consider his prospects dim.  Police controversially dropped charges against a chief hard-line Islamic figure.  Anti-foreign rhetoric, chiefly from Prabowo, threatens to tug policy discourse towards his vision of barriers, autarky and state control.  Two forthcoming regulations on the property sector aim to safeguard consumers.  A review of geothermal policies is possible.  Upstream energy investment may be improving.  The IA-Cepa may conclude on 4 March.  Adhi Karya’s Jabodebek LRT faces a thorny land problem in Bekasi, where the China-backed fast train project may have complicated matters by overpaying. 

Politics: Campaign sparring continues apace, as Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto criticized infrastructure projects (they enable imports to penetrate further) and reiterated that “Rp11,000 trillion in Indonesian assets reside abroad”.  Campaign officials for President Joko Widodo lambasted the remarks and recalled that both Prabowo and his running mate appeared in the ‘Panama Papers’.  Meanwhile, retired generals from the rival campaigns exchanged jabs about events of May 1998; for Prabowo, the topic contains pitfalls (Page 2).  In a rare example of violence in election campaigning, a fracas outside a rally in Yogyakarta caused three minor injuries among rival youth groups (p. 4).  Elite endorsements matter little, but Widodo has garnered overwhelming support from regional heads (p. 4).  Police controversially dropped charges on hard‑line Islamic leader Slamet Ma’arif (p. 5).  Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) takes over Partai Demokrat’s campaigning as Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono attends to his ill spouse (p. 6). 

Surveys: A newly released poll from the Cyrus Network shows Widodo’s lead intact – but the actual data is from mid‑January, a period that other polls already covered (p. 6). 

Policy News: Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister Lt Gen (ret) Luhut Panjaitan urged greater state investment in geothermal power (p. 7).  Protecting consumers from misleading practices by property developers will reportedly be the focus of two forth­coming regulations (p. 8).  The IA-Cepa is reportedly due for signing on 4 March (p. 9).

Infrastructure: The Jakarta Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) will ramp up operations during a trial from 12-24 March, with commercial operations expected by end‑March (p. 9).  Press reports hint that the China‑financed Bandung fast train project may have overpaid for land in Bekasi, thereby complicating acquisition of nearby land needed for the Jakarta-Area Light Rail Train (LRT) project, which faces delay until April 2021 (p. 9). 

Economics: The trade minister touted FTAs (p. 11).  Upstream Regulatory Agency (SKK Migas) officials expressed optimism about investment flows into oil and gas (p. 12). 

Outlook: Although the winner is not yet clear, the loser thus far in the presidential election appears to be the international community.  Pronounced anti‑foreign rhetoric from the Prabowo camp threatens to cow policy­makers and jeopardize prudent economic management.  Excessive skepticism of international engagement would come at an awkward time: the current account deficit requires capital inflows, while protectionism would augur lower growth (p. 12).