Brief Macro: Global Tech Breakup and more

In this briefing:

1. Global Tech Breakup
2. UK Politics: Intransigence Meets Incompetence

1. Global Tech Breakup

By Eleanor Olcott, China Policy Analyst at TS Lombard

• Washington’s political drive to block Chinese access to US high-end tech is creating uncertainty in the industry
• The immediate effect is the redirection of Chinese VC money away from the US to Asian and European rivals
• The long-term trend is of  two rival centres of technology production- one focused on Shenzhen, the other on Silicon Valley

2. UK Politics: Intransigence Meets Incompetence

• The government has lost its second attempt to secure support for its Brexit deal by 149 votes, versus 230 first time. A Wednesday vote is set to reject no deal before one on Thursday leads the government to request an Article 50 extension.
• A third meaningful vote may arise as the cost of EU conditions is compared. An expensive extension to the summer is likely, though that may not thaw relations. An unlikely general election wouldn’t help, but a new Conservative PM might.
• Intransigent positions among an arguably incompetent current crop of political actors have significantly raised the risk of no deal. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 45:35:20, versus 55:25:10.