In this briefing:
1. FLASH: UK GDP Shrinkage Shock in Dec-18
- UK monthly GDP disappointed all expectations by falling 0.4% m-o-m in Dec-18, which trimmed 4Q18 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP weighed most, mainly owing to ongoing car manufacturing issues, but was not the source of surprise.
- Services remained resilient overall in the PMI-comparable areas with 0.55% q-o-q growth. Government and non-retail distributive trades were weaker, though.
- Construction’s 2.8% contraction caused most of the surprise. Repairs and new private housing were weakest, and both are prone to positive payback. However, 1Q18 GDP growth is now tracking a low 0.3% q-o-q, in my view.
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