In today’s briefing:
- UK: Budget from Russia with Love
- UK: Inflation Regime Rolling into Spring
- CX Daily: What’s Behind China’s Growing Problem With Child Depression
- First hike is gone and market reacted well
UK: Budget from Russia with Love
- The intensified inflation squeeze has created pressure on the government to ease the burden. After blaming Russia, the Chancellor confirmed a temporary fuel duty cut.
- More substantive changes to personal taxation served to negate some of the pain from the recent national insurance hikes, leaving middle-income workers to take the load.
- A £70bn drop in gilt sales for 22-23 is helpful now the BoE’s bid has gone. An indicative reversal beyond doesn’t sit easily with BoE hopes for active asset sales.
UK: Inflation Regime Rolling into Spring
- Inflation repeated its tendency to exceed forecasts in Feb-22 as prices get pulled back towards their equilibrium, which seems almost 4% higher than the current level.
- Headline rates still have a lot further to rise over the next two months, but there are some signs that underlying pressures are stabilising, albeit at excessively high levels.
- The MPC remains likely to deliver a fourth back-to-back rate hike in May. We see the pace beyond that slowing as the excess in inflation and stimulus fades.
CX Daily: What’s Behind China’s Growing Problem With Child Depression
Depression / In Depth: What’s behind China’s growing problem with child depression
Covid-19 /Pfizer Covid drug deployed in virus-hit Chinese province for the first time
Gold mine /Papua New Guinea gold mine set to reopen after foreign owners agree to lower stakes
First hike is gone and market reacted well
- Let’s see what is happening on markets!
- Equity indices are still down YTD, but there has been an interesting rebound last week (one of the best of the last 2 years).
- Right now investors are mainly focused on two themes: Central Banks, Conflict in Ukraine
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
