In today’s briefing:
- Trading the Relief Rally
- How to Spot A Market Bottom
- Japan Financials: Bottoming Out?
- The Lowest Jobless Rate Since Start Of The Pandemic
Trading the Relief Rally
- The U.S. stock market is undergoing a relief rally in the context of an intermediate-term downtrend.
- Investment-Oriented accounts should take advantage of market strength to rebalance to a position of minimum risk.
- Traders who are long should use a stop-loss to define their risk.
How to Spot A Market Bottom
- Did the stock market make a meaningful bottom last week? Don’t be fooled, this is a bear market. The recent episode of stock market strength is a bear market rally.
- We are downgrading our Trend Asset Allocation Model from neutral to negative.
- Investment-Oriented accounts should shift to a maximum defensive posture. Traders could position themselves for a short but vicious bear market rally, but don’t overstay your welcome.
Japan Financials: Bottoming Out?
- Japan Financials have suffered a long-term decline in exposure. Ownership has dropped from 56% of managers in December 2013 to just 31.2% today.
- However, there are signs that these ownership declines are starting to reverse course, led by manager buying in Japan Post Holdings, Ms&Ad Insurance and Sompo Holdings
- If recent activity suggests a shift in sentiment for Japan Financials stocks, there is plenty of room for ownership levels to move higher from here.
The Lowest Jobless Rate Since Start Of The Pandemic
- Decline in labour force participation rate to 60.5%
- Agriculture the key driver of total employment loss
- Metro Manila shift to AL1 from 16 Mar 2022
- Maintain our 2022 unemployment rate forecast
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
