Macro: The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Sea Ltd’s Indian Odyssey and more

• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
• The past week saw insights on Sea Ltd after its exit from India, the GoTo IPO as it approaches listing, and Cisaru Modern Dairy following strong results.
• There were also timely notes from Henry Soediarko on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Platinum Group PCL (PLAT TB) both of which are COVID-recovery plays.

• India is the biggest loser in the Russia-Ukraine war. India’s reliance on Russian arms and historically warm relations explain Delhi’s pushback against calls to take a stand on the war.
• Near-Term, a rapture in the Russo-Indian symbiotic relationship is not likely as India needs more time to diversify away from Russian arms. 
• On the economic front, there may be small positives from soaring commodity prices but the net effect is overwhelmingly negative as the subsidy bill comes under pressure.

• Economy Update 3QFY22 Balance of Payments/1HFY23 borrowing CAD at 2.7% of GDP in 3QFY22; 1HFY23 borrowing at 59% of budget The current account deficit (CAD) stood at US$23.2bn (2.7% of GDP) in 3QFY22, marginally lower than our estimate of US$23.9bn (3.2% of GDP).
• The CAD widened from 1.3% of GDP in 2QFY22 on the back of a higher trade deficit.
• The better-than-expected performance against our estimate in 3QFY22 was led by higher remittances (9.7% YoY) and services exports (17.8% YoY).

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