In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Philippines & Marcos, GoTo’s Direction, and Bank Danamon
- The Philippines: What to Expect from a Marcos Administration
- Hawkish Fed Policy Outlook Returns to Haunt Markets as Future Measures Seek to Cool Labour Demand
- Thailand: Short Term Headwinds, Improving Prospects for Long-Term
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Philippines & Marcos, GoTo’s Direction, and Bank Danamon
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on GoTo (GOTO IJ), Integra Indocabinet Tbk PT (WOOD IJ),PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ), and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP).
- There was also some commentary on the Philippines after the Marco victory plus details on upcoming webinars in Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) and China Shenshan Orchard (DKNG SP).
The Philippines: What to Expect from a Marcos Administration
- President-Elect Marcos’s economics team will comprise experienced and respected technocrats who can be relied on to pursue sound monetary and fiscal policies.
- Marcos’s foreign policy team has not been named. Our expectation is for Marcos to temper his earlier pro-China sentiments in favour of a balanced relationship with the US and China.
- The other appointees to the cabinet are loyalists, including some who have been controversial. Critics are concerned about the weakening of institutions.
Hawkish Fed Policy Outlook Returns to Haunt Markets as Future Measures Seek to Cool Labour Demand
- Plausible Fed policy involves two increases of 75 basis points at the next two policy meetings and 25 basis points in September. Subsequent moves will be determined by incoming data.
- The emergence of rising service sector inflation will make a rapid return to price stability in H2 more difficult to achieve, notwithstanding the persistence of labour shortages.
- Forward guidance is in uncharted territory during the current tightening cycle. Hitherto, investors have believed the Fed will stay the course as evidenced by tighter financial conditions.
Thailand: Short Term Headwinds, Improving Prospects for Long-Term
- Thailand’s cyclical prospects have been bolstered by the progressive economic re-opening as Covid infections come under control, underpinned by improving rural incomes and a firming urban labour market.
- However, headwinds in the form of high energy prices, a slowing world economy and diminished confidence will restrain the extent of this year’s economic rebound.
- The country’s longer term prospects are supported by the government’s restructuring efforts. The development of the Eastern Economic Corridor, in particular, will be a source of underestimated strength, we believe.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
