In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma- Bukalapak Building, Siloam’s Base Case, and Prodia Diagnosed
- Ukraine Impact on Asia, One Month into the War
- Asian Monetary Policy: No Abrupt Policy Shifts, For Now
- Covid Stalls the TSF-Fuelled Cyclical Rebound in the Political-Transition Year
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma- Bukalapak Building, Siloam’s Base Case, and Prodia Diagnosed
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- In the past week, we saw insights on Bukalapak’s building ecosystem, Siloam International Hospitals’ growing base case revenues, and Prodia’s core diagnostic strength.
- We also had an insight on the ongoing True Corp Pcl and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger along with a look at Bukalapak‘s expiring lock-ups.
Ukraine Impact on Asia, One Month into the War
- The Ukraine war will affect Asia through two principal channels – slower European growth and higher energy prices.
- Our analysis suggests that the impact on Asian growth will be lower growth of between 10 and 30 basis points.
- But, the easing of pandemic restrictions is unfolding as we had expected. This will boost domestic demand and tourism, both of which will have powerful positive impacts on growth.
Asian Monetary Policy: No Abrupt Policy Shifts, For Now
- The BSP stood pat in last week’s monetary policy meeting, but there remains the tail risk of a premature rate hike in 2Q22, depending on the pass-through from oil price.
- RBI governor Das dismissed suggestions of stagflation and reiterated his view that inflation will moderate moving forward, vindicating the RBI’s dovish stance.
- The BoK got a new governor, who is known to be dovish. But, his hawkish remarks imply that the central bank is still on track to raise rates in April.
Covid Stalls the TSF-Fuelled Cyclical Rebound in the Political-Transition Year
- This being a “political-transition” year, with President Xi Jinping seeking re-selection in Oct-Nov’22 for another 5 years, real GDP growth is targeted at 5.5% but will likely be slower.
- Two RRR cuts (Jul’21, Dec’21) and an LPR cut (Jan’22) enabled TSF to expand 19.3% faster in Jan’22 than any previous month. This boosted FAI by 12.2%YoY in Jan-Feb’22.
- Serial lockdowns in Shenzhen, Shenyang, Jilin, Shanghai will constrain growth in Mar’22, likely eating into 2Q2022 as well. IMF forecast of 4.8% likelier than government’s 5.5% aim.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
