Daily BriefsMacro

Macro: The Hump and Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve to Become More Pronounced and more

In today’s briefing:

  • The Hump and Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve to Become More Pronounced

The Hump and Kink in Brazil’s Yield Curve to Become More Pronounced

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

  • With the Brazilian central bank approaching the end of its aggressive monetary tightening cycle, the rate curve has taken a unique shape that features a hump and a kink.
  • The hump should get more pronounced because the rate-cutting cycle should be deeper than currently priced because real rates are quite elevated and growth risks are high.
  • The kink should also get more prominent as the curve should steepen further out due to fiscal risks irrespective of who wins the upcoming presidential election.

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