In today’s briefing:
- Taking Stock of Commodity Prices
- Singapore: Policy Responses to Go Beyond S$NEER Steepening
Taking Stock of Commodity Prices
- We summarise the supply and demand factors in Table 1 and calculate the breakdown of the commodity output as a share of GDP and exports.
- Indonesia and Malaysia are the key winners from the commodity windfall.
- India and the Philippines benefit at the margin, but higher oil prices are still a net negative.
Singapore: Policy Responses to Go Beyond S$NEER Steepening
- We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to announce a one-off upward re-centering of the S$NEER midpoint alongside a 50-100 basis point steepening of the S$NEER slope.
- Uncertainty in the growth outlook has risen due to the fallout from the Ukraine crisis, but this will not be sufficient to stave off monetary tightening given strong inflationary pressures.
- Expect more macro-prudential action to address signs of real estate overheating. The government will also hasten the return of foreign workers to limit the surge in wage costs.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
