In today’s briefing:
- Singapore Budget 2022: Expect Medium-Term Adjustments to Raise Inflation
- Thailand: A Good Chance of Upside Surprise in 2022
- Will Latin American Currencies Continue to Outperform Against Asia and CEEMEA?
- CX Daily: How a Fortune 500 Company Built a Commodity Colossus on a Shell Game
- CX Daily: How the Balance of Power Over Ukraine Shattered Overnight
Singapore Budget 2022: Expect Medium-Term Adjustments to Raise Inflation
- The budget signalled a shift in the government’s priorities from cushioning the economy against COVID-19 to addressing longer-term imperatives: enhancing productivity, labour force upskilling, and Singapore’s nascent green transition.
- The slightly negative fiscal impulse notwithstanding, the meaningful step up in direct transfers to households to offset cost-of-living increases and efforts to raise low wage incomes could boost domestic demand.
- On the revenue front, policymakers introduced several adjustments to their tax policies. This, tighter controls on foreign labour, and an ambitious carbon tax hike imply moderately higher medium-term price pressures.
Thailand: A Good Chance of Upside Surprise in 2022
- We estimate GDP growth at 4.7% in 2022, with the chance of an upside surprise if foreign tourist arrivals reach past the projected 5.6 million tourists to 10 million tourists.
- Global demand conditions and revved up government spending render the manufacturing and construction sector bright spots for the economy in 2022.
- Crucially, the revival of tourism will lift the Thai Baht from its prolonged weakness throughout the duration of the pandemic.
Will Latin American Currencies Continue to Outperform Against Asia and CEEMEA?
- In an environment marked by uncertainty with regards to the dollar’s next move, EM currencies have been stable and LatAm currencies have outperformed Asia and CEEMEA so far this year.
- The strong start for LatAm currencies is partly to make up for their underperformance last year and partly supported by their high carry relative to other currencies.
- If risk aversion remains low, this trend should persist but given the uncertainty, it is best to be selective and target relative-value trades to take advantage of differences across countries.
CX Daily: How a Fortune 500 Company Built a Commodity Colossus on a Shell Game
Cover Story: How a Fortune 500 company built a commodity colossus on a shell game
Analysis: Why Singapore could coexist with Covid, but not Hong Kong
China moves to protect vulnerable services sector from excessive local Covid control measures
CX Daily: How the Balance of Power Over Ukraine Shattered Overnight
In Depth: How the balance of power over Ukraine shattered overnight
Hong Kong can stock up on anti-Covid drugs to tackle omicron outbreak, top infectious disease expert says
ByteDance looks to exit securities business as fintech rules tighten
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