In today’s briefing:
- Russia: Echoes of the Past. Crimea Analysis and Positioning Update
- EA: Solid Core in Jan-22 Supports Hawks
Russia: Echoes of the Past. Crimea Analysis and Positioning Update
- Russia suffered a significant reallocation of capital during the Crimea Annexation in 2014. Average weights fell by -3.36%, 7.9% of funds closed positions and investors shifted from overweight to underweight
- EM investors were well positioned in Russia heading in to 2022, not perhaps as heavily exposed as pre-Crimea, but enough to significantly effect portfolio returns for many funds.
- Given the scale of the Ukraine conflict and the uncertainty surrounding western sanctions, this doesn’t feel like the time for catching a falling knife.
EA: Solid Core in Jan-22 Supports Hawks
- EA HICP inflation was confirmed at 5.1% y-o-y for Jan-22, while the ex-tobacco print matched our 5.2% forecast (110.3). We expect another rise in Feb-22.
- The impulse in core inflation picked up even further above target-consistent levels and continues to pose upside forecast risks.
- We still expect the ECB to start hiking this year.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
