In today’s briefing:
- Market Monitor: The War on Stagflation
- EA: Leader in Labour Market Tightening
- Major Taiwanese Players in the Electronics Supply Chain: Slowing Demand for Consumer Electronics
- CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy
- Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin
Market Monitor: The War on Stagflation
- We were not convinced that we were heading for a global recession until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- We believe even if the war may end this year, hostility between the West and Russia/China will continue for years, if not decades.
- With the combination of low interest rates and a lack of investment opportunities, we believe the world is entering stagflation where high inflation exists alongside low growth and high unemployment.
EA: Leader in Labour Market Tightening
- Rapid ongoing declines in unemployment have reached a record pace in the Euro area as the headline fell again to 6.8% in Feb-22. Most member states have kept improving.
- Vacancies are high enough to explain the unemployment change. That suggests an inflationary demand-side development, not a disinflationary positive supply shock.
- Labour market slack has tightened more in the EA than almost anywhere else. A looser starting point only buys so much time. We still expect an ECB hike in Sep-22.
Major Taiwanese Players in the Electronics Supply Chain: Slowing Demand for Consumer Electronics
- In this insight, we discuss about the major Taiwanese players in the electronics supply chain that could be impacted by the the slowing demand for consumer electronics, especially in China.
- When TSMC’s Chairman mentions that the demand for consumer electronics is slowing down, especially in China, this is a time for a pause and really ponder on this.
- We believe that there is an increasing risk of the average sales growth of the 13 major Taiwanese tech/consumer electronics stocks being lowered further in the coming months.
CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy
- Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate
- Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak
- Distressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan
Political Data Point to Macron Winning French Presidential Election – Question Is by What Margin
- Our updated analysis of the forthcoming French presidential election suggests that political data are clearly pointing to centre-right President Macron winning both the first and second rounds.
- So while Macron is likely to win second term, opinion polls point to a smaller margin of victory than in 2017 when he beatLe Pen by 2 votes to 1
- The positive impact on the Euro and Eurozone equities is likely to be modest and short-lived, certainly compared to 2017.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
