In today’s briefing:
- June Market Thinking
- CX Daily: Chinese Consumer Startups Find Taking On Global Titans Is No Easy Task
- China: Looking Beyond the Immediate Challenges…
June Market Thinking
- The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips
- Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year
- Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower
CX Daily: Chinese Consumer Startups Find Taking On Global Titans Is No Easy Task
In Depth: Chinese consumer startups find taking on global titans is no easy task
Shanghai’s top prosecutor investigated for graft
Hong Kong money man Calvin Choi faces two-year industry ban for misconduct
China: Looking Beyond the Immediate Challenges…
- Geopolitical vulnerabilities argue for Chinese leaders to undertake reforms that they have long avoided but the practical and political obstacles to these reforms are significant:
- Once the current slowdown is contained, a policy of faster appreciation of the Yuan is possible, to rebalance the economy. We also see more liberalisation of the capital account.
- Other necessary moves, e.g., strengthening social safety nets to reduce savings, will take longer. Ideological obstacles will probably delay reforms that alleviate institutional constraints on the more productive private sector.
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