In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: The Winners and Losers of China’s Credit Easing
- ECB: Hawkish Return to State-Dependence
- ECB: Hawkish Return to State-Dependence
- Government Work Report Targets Economic Stability Driven by Fiscal Support
- In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion
- CX Daily: China’s Pension Insurers Told to Stop Pursuing Quick and Risky Profits
CX Daily: The Winners and Losers of China’s Credit Easing
In Depth: The winners and losers of China’s credit easing
Leaders from China, France and Germany press for settlement to Russia-Ukraine war
Chinese metal giant faces heavy losses on wild nickel ride
ECB: Hawkish Return to State-Dependence
- The ECB announced an even more aggressive tapering of its asset purchases than we expected as it delivered a welcome return to explicitly state-dependent policy.
- High inflation is hurrying policy towards the exit. We expect inflation to exceed the staff forecast again, encouraging the ECB to end net purchases with June’s EUR 20bn.
- Rate hikes “some time” later probably won’t be long, with our forecast for the first now three months earlier at Sep-22. Excessive core pressures are pushing global action.
ECB: Hawkish Return to State-Dependence
- The ECB announced an even more aggressive tapering of its asset purchases than we expected as it delivered a welcome return to explicitly state-dependent policy.
- High inflation is hurrying policy towards the exit. We expect inflation to exceed the staff forecast again, encouraging the ECB to end net purchases with June’s EUR 20bn.
- Rate hikes “some time” later probably won’t be long, with our forecast for the first now three months earlier at Sep-22. Excessive core pressures are pushing global action.
Government Work Report Targets Economic Stability Driven by Fiscal Support
- The NPC session at the Two Conferences saw the release of the 2022 Government Work Report, NDRC Work Report, and the Budget Work Report.
- The financial derisking being the second economic priory (behind stability)
- Property policy will be focused on promoting long-term rental housing and supporting genuine home demand
In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion
- In line with my view, the US dollar remains strong, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia providing additional safe-haven bids and putting pressure on EM currencies.
- Among EM currencies, the worst hit are Central European currencies as the war has created headwinds to growth in the region especially due to the spike in energy prices.
- Authorities in the eurozone and Central Europe have taken steps to mitigate the impact on their economies but the proximity to the war means that some risk premium will remain.
CX Daily: China’s Pension Insurers Told to Stop Pursuing Quick and Risky Profits
In Depth: China’s pension insurers told to stop pursuing quick and risky profits
China Meheco links up with Pfizer to market Covid pill
China must address gender imbalance to tackle demographic crisis, Nobel laureate says
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