In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: Millions of China’s Migrant Workers Find Themselves Shunned in Old Age
- Uncertainty Weighs on British Businesses in China Amid Lockdowns, Chamber Says
- The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring
CX Daily: Millions of China’s Migrant Workers Find Themselves Shunned in Old Age
In Depth: Millions of China’s migrant workers find themselves shunned in old age
China’s manufacturing activity shrinks for third month amid Covid controls, Caixin PMI shows
China expands tax cuts to autos with bigger engines
Uncertainty Weighs on British Businesses in China Amid Lockdowns, Chamber Says
- A majority of British companies in China have forecast falling revenues for 2022 as they expect the country’s current wave of Covid-19 outbreaks and the resulting government response to take a serious toll on business this year.
- 55% of the British businesses polled in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, predict revenue will drop this year, while a further 38% said it’s too early to tell
- 74% of respondents said the outbreaks have had a serious or large impact on their businesses and cash flow
The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring
- Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.
- In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.
- Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
