In this briefing:
- Smartkarma’s Week that Was in JP/KR: BGF, Japan Telcos, NCSoft, Nissan, and Nexon
- TRADE IDEA: Amorepacific (002790 KS) Stub: A Beautiful Opportunity
- Prored Partners (7034) – A Fast Growing Recent Listing in Japan.
- Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat
- NTT Buyback Almost Done
1. Smartkarma’s Week that Was in JP/KR: BGF, Japan Telcos, NCSoft, Nissan, and Nexon
After a holiday hiatus where markets were slow and somewhat quiet and the number of insights published and read dipped, we resume your regularly scheduled service.
Smartkarma saw just over 110 insights published last week, with an additional 35 published between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening. The pace is picking up.
Across the platform, almost four dozen thematic, macro, and economics pieces were published by 30 insight providers, and two dozen-plus insights were published on Japan and Korea (note that the prior week, Japan was effectively on holiday the whole week).
Insights published on Japan include…
And on Korea….
2. TRADE IDEA: Amorepacific (002790 KS) Stub: A Beautiful Opportunity
Take out an ad in a magazine or pay a one of the Wondergirls to post an Instagram photo of herself using our makeup? How do we get Americans and Europeans to want our bubble tea sleeping packs and panda-shaped palettes? All valid questions for K-beauty companies in the midst of a global expansion.
Korean beauty products powerhouse, Amorepacific is going through some growing pains at the moment. In the 3Q18 the group reported a YoY sales increase of 6% but OP tumbled 24% due to increased personnel and marketing costs. In a management policy statement last week, Chairman Suh outlined the problems the group is encountering as it copes with reaching customers in a world where online and offline customer interaction is changing.
The stub is now trading at its widest discount to NAV in at least 3 years and has reached 22% discount to its Sum of the Parts NAV by my calculations. This level represents a level 1.5 standard deviations below its long-term average and also offers compelling value.
In this insight I will detail:
- an actionable market-neutral trade idea
- an analysis of the various business units of Amorepacific
- reasons for the under-performance of Amorepacific parent and a sign of a rebound
- a recap of ALL my stub trade ideas on Smartkarma, including track record of performance
3. Prored Partners (7034) – A Fast Growing Recent Listing in Japan.
Prored Partners is a business consulting company founded in 2009 by the CEO, Mr Satani (who retains 60% of the equity). Prior to setting up Prored, he worked as a business consultant at a consultancy firm subsequently acquired by PwC Consulting. The shares were registered on the Mother’s exchange at the end of July 2018. Unfortunately, it is a micro-cap (market cap Y24bn) but should be of interest to those looking for a very fast growing small cap name. It trades on 17x our forecasts for this year to 10/19. The company has been growing at a fast pace over the last few years. We expect this strong rate of growth to continue, see below.
4. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat
We noted in Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017. Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.
5. NTT Buyback Almost Done
On November 6th, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)announced a ¥150 billion buyback program, and NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)announced that its very large ¥600 billion buyback program presented days before would be done through a single below-market-price Tender Offer where NTT was expected to be the only seller. That left NTT buying shares on market and NTT Docomo buying shares off-market in the immediate future.
The Tender Offer went through as planned (though NTT sold a tiny trifle less than expected).
On January 7th, NTT announced it had repurchased 8.4mm shares for ¥38.8 billion, leaving only ¥15.35 billion to repurchase in this program. That is worth about 7-8 trading days of buying. The buyback is therefore almost done.
A hint as to the future came in a Nikkei article in December. It may be many months before we see more NTT on-market buybacks.
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