In this briefing:
- NTT Buybacks Will Roll On
- Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
- Softbank Corp: When Does It Become a Buy?
- SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount
- Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
1. NTT Buybacks Will Roll On
There is an extensive history of writing on the NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) family (and indeed Japan telecom sector) buybacks – their modalities and methods, impacts, legal and accounting requirements, competition, push-me-pull-you effect, etc.
One of the longstanding features of buybacks for NTT is that NTT is subject to the NTT Law which requires (for the moment) that the government hold at least one-third of the shares outstanding in NTT.
Today, the Nikkei carried an article noting that the Japanese government’sFY2019 budget currently being formed proposes a sale of JPY 160bn of shares to help fund any revenue impact from the upcoming consumption tax rate hike from 8% to 10% next October. The article helpfully notes that they plan on selling when NTT is buying back shares.
This news is not unexpected to Smartkarma readers of the ongoing series. And there are implications and read-throughs.
2. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
- Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
- But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
- After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely
3. Softbank Corp: When Does It Become a Buy?
Although we were bearish on the IPO initially and turned increasingly so following the relatively poor reception among retailers that was discussed in Softbank IPO: Signs Point to Risk of Early IPO Price Break, we were still a touch surprised at the extent of the drop today, with the stock finishing down 14.53% to close at the lows with 271.5m shares changing hands. With a rising dividend yield and looming buying from passive funds on the on hand and a potentially large overhang from retailers who may have been looking to flip for a profit on the other, we discuss what would turn us more bullish below.
4. SoftBank Group (9984 JP): SoftBank Corp IPO Has Failed to Meaningfully Narrow the Holdco Discount
Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s market cap has consistently traded below its NAV. A popular expectation was that the Softbank Corp (9434 JP) IPO should be a catalyst to narrow the conglomerate discount (holdco discount). On its trading debut today, SoftBank Corp’s shares fell 14.5% from its IPO price of JPY1,500 to JPY1,282 per share – the worst first-day decline ever for a major IPO in Japan since the Japan Display (6740 JP) IPO in 2014.
In our previous research, we stated that the SoftBank Corp IPO is unlikely to meaningfully narrow SoftBank’s holdco discount. Our updated SoftBank SoTP analysis which reflects SoftBank Corp’s trading debut suggests that SoftBank’s holdco discount has not meaningfully narrowed.
5. Semiconductor WFE Outlook. Things Just Got Really Ugly
SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chain for the electronics industry, published three different forecasts for wafer fab equipment (WFE) sales in the past week. While the forecasts differ in approach and detail, they all agree on one thing, WFE revenues are continuing to fall and the outlook for 2019 is sharply down on previous estimates.
Specifically, Q4 2018 WFE revenues are set to decline 20.8% or $3.3 billion QoQ and the forecast which had just six months ago predicted 7% growth in 2019 is now calling for an 8% decline next year.
These latest forecasts cast a dark shadow over the predictions of the leading WFE manufacturers that H1 2019 would be stronger than H2 2018 and we anticipate a strong downward revision of forward guidance in the upcoming earnings season.
There may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon however as SEMI forecasts a strong rebound in the second half of 2019 leading to a return to growth of ~20% in 2020. Let’s see.
