Brief Japan: The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario and more

In this briefing:

1. The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario
2. Murata Up 12.8% Following 3QFY03/19 Earnings Release
3. Sony Revises FY03/19 Guidance Downwards; Management Announces a Surprise Buyback
4. Meiji Holdings 3QFY2019 Results On Track to Meet Guidance, Dark Clouds Loom Over Its Mid Term Target
5. Japan Stock Weekly

1. The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario

• Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s 3Q earnings were quite weak, failing to meet both consensus and our estimates. Panasonic reported revenue of JPY2,074.8bn and OP of JPY97.5bn resulting in an OPM of 4.7% compared to 5.8% in the third quarter of last year
• The majority of revenue growth came from the Automotive & Industrial Solution (A&IS) segment which saw the strongest growth in revenue at nearly 8% YoY followed by the Eco Solutions Segment. Despite the steady growth in the A&IS revenue, the segment continued to display a decline in profits by almost 13% YoY.
• A downward revision in targets was made following the weak earnings this quarter. Nine-months cumulative figures weren’t particularly attractive in the OP front as well (Revenue up 3% YoY and OP down -8% YoY as of 3QFY03/19). Panasonic is nearing our modest case scenario, although its downward revised earnings target places it in our worst-case scenario, where we expect Panasonic to be exposed to a high degree of risk, increasing its lookout for other customers. Panasonic has only tied up with Toyota Motor (7203 JP) thus far and may have to diversify its customer base further to bring earnings to a sustainable level.
• After the earnings release and news about Chinese competitor, CATL (A) (300750 CH), collaborating with Honda Motor (7267 JP) ( Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance), Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced that it was acquiring battery company Maxwell Technologies for production of its EV batteries. Panasonic fell almost -5% on Monday’s open.

2. Murata Up 12.8% Following 3QFY03/19 Earnings Release

• Murata reported 3.4% YoY revenue growth to JPY427.6bn and 89.9% YoY OP growth to JPY85.6bn in its third quarter earnings.
• Despite the strong third quarter performance, we, along with consensus, expect the company to underperform its revenue guidance. This is mainly due to the slowdown in the smartphone market, which is expected to persist in the current quarter as well.
• Based on our estimates, Murata is currently trading at a FY1 PE multiple of 17.5x, lower than its historical median of 20.5x.

3. Sony Revises FY03/19 Guidance Downwards; Management Announces a Surprise Buyback

• Sony’s revenue for the quarter fell by 10.1% YoY to JPY2,401.8bn while company’s OP saw a 7.5% YoY growth in 3QFY03/19. 
• Sony downgraded its FY03/19 revenue guidance following the third quarter’s earnings results. The company expects to make revenue worth JPY8,500bn for FY03/19, a 2.3% decrease from the October forecast. Sony’s OP forecast for the year still remains at JPY870.0bn.
• Following the 3QFY03/19 earnings release, the company announced that it would buyback JPY100bn worth of its own stock starting Tuesday and lasting until the 22nd of March. 
• As per consensus expectations, Sony is currently trading at a FY1 PE multiple of 7.6x, significantly lower than its historical median of 19.7x.

4. Meiji Holdings 3QFY2019 Results On Track to Meet Guidance, Dark Clouds Loom Over Its Mid Term Target

Meiji Holdings (2269 JP) recorded revenue growth of 4.1% in 3QFY2019. The food segment which produces yoghurt, drinking milk, cheese, ice cream, chocolate, nutritional products and sports nutrients came short of the expectations as it recorded a 1.1% drop in revenue. The pharmaceutical segment grew by 35.9% during the quarter allowing Meiji to maintain overall revenue growth in line with FY2019E guidance.

In contrast, EBIT turned out better than expected as it grew 32.6% in 3QFY2019. Both the food and pharmaceutical segments reported significant margin gains, thus the overall EBIT margin of Meiji improved by 227bps cf. 3Q2018.

5. Japan Stock Weekly

Yaskawa (6506) 

The shares have corrected significantly, as have most in this sector, but given that it would appear orders are bottoming out, and that there are certainly some encouraging signs for the future we would start to look and this name, and others in this space, on a 12 month view.

Hino (7205)

Cheap and shares have underperformed but the domestic market is mature and overseas is showing signs of slowing. There are better bets elsewhere.

Katitas (8919)

A great growth story in the domestic housing sector.