Brief Japan: Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL and more

In this briefing:

1. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL
2. Japan 5G Spectrum Allocations In-Line With Expectations
3. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success
4. NTT DoCoMo: Sale of HTHK Mobile Stake Is the End of an Era (Thankfully)
5. Smartkarma’s Week that Was in JP/​​​​​​KR: Nexon, Japan Post, Toyota and Doosan Heavy

1. Asian Bank Asset Quality: “One Overdue, Two Bad” 一逾两呆 The Complex Journey of the NPL

• Asset Quality recognition is something of a black art with varied definitions for non-performing loans (“NPLs”).
• Firstly, we analyse what a NPL is.
• We then evaluate provisioning changes across Asia. We rank countries.
• We further analyse specific underlying NPL recognition issues in China.
• We then rank a sample of regional banks and countries by NPL recognition.
• Later, we take a look at how different systems come under NPL stress and how they cope often in a crisis environment.
• Finally, we wrap things up with some concluding insights about the cultural backdrop which defines systemic asset quality.

2. Japan 5G Spectrum Allocations In-Line With Expectations

The Ministry of Industry Affairs and Communications (MIC, the regulator) announced 5G spectrum allocations today with KDDI and NTT DoCoMo securing three bands and Rakuten and Softbank two, in line with one of the two expected scenarios we discussed last month.  This dramatically expands the spectrum portfolio for the industry and sets the stage for the deployment of 5G services in later this year and in 2020. We think all operators benefit although sentiment may favor Rakuten for receiving two more bands and KDDI/DoCoMo for receiving the highest allocations. 

3. China’s New Semiconductor Thrust – Part 2: Commodities as a Quick Path to Success

China’s current efforts to gain prominence in the semiconductor market targets memory chips – large commodities.  This three-part series of insights examines how China determined its strategy and explains which companies are the most threatened by it.

This second part of the series explains how China chose commodity semiconductors (DRAM and NAND flash memory chips) as the best technology to pursue.

4. NTT DoCoMo: Sale of HTHK Mobile Stake Is the End of an Era (Thankfully)

NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) recently announced it would sell its 25% stake in Hutchinson Telecom Hong Kong’s ( Hutchison Telecommunications Hk Hld (215 HK)  mobile unit for US$60mn with closing expected at the end of May. This ends a 20-year association with Hutchinson forged in the initial excitement over 3G in 1999 but it hasn’t been a good ride for DoCoMo which lost close to 90% on its Hutchison investments and its other international forays were not much better.  On a related note, the HK mobile sale follows soon after DoCoMo’s exit from its credit card joint venture with Sumitomo Mitsui but we would not read anything into this beyond a rationalization of its non-core investments.

5. Smartkarma’s Week that Was in JP/​​​​​​KR: Nexon, Japan Post, Toyota and Doosan Heavy

Below is the list of the Japan/Korea-related posts put on the Smartkarma platform during the week of April 01st: