In this briefing:
1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers – PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS
– MARKET COMPOSITE –
Source: Japan Analytics
ALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY – The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above the Christmas Day low. The ‘market value’-based percentage above moving averages almost reached a new three-month on Thursday; the stock count version is lagging as usual.
STILL SOME UPSIDE – Using the three-month rate of change in this indicator, we are a few weeks away from generating a short-term sell signal, the last such trigger having occurred on 25th October.Â
– SECTORS –Â
SECTOR BREAKDOWNÂ – The top six sectors remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Transporation and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants and Healthcare replacing Media and Telecommunications. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen – Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction and Retail replacing Chemicals and Other Materials.Â
– COMPANIES –
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS – As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company’s share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. ‘Extreme’ values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen.Â
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
PKSHA Technology (3993 JP) is currently the most extreme large capitalisation positive outlier and an excellent example of a -100 to 100 ’roundtrip’ in under two months. SanBio (4592 JP) is, again, the most extreme negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list and is another ’round-tripper’. We also add the chart for ‘cockroach’ stock Leopalace21 (8848 JP) which no longer qualifies for inclusion in our tables, having lost 60% of its value in the last two weeks and 79% in less than a year.
Source: Japan Analytics
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