In today’s briefing:
- Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again
- Softbank Group Sale of TMUS Shares Helps Modestly With Leverage Concerns
- Money Forward (3994) – Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales
- Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions
- Japan’s Governance: About the Article on the March Shareholders’ Meeting Companies Update
- Shift 2Q Results: Earnings Beat with Further Upgrade to Full-Year Guidance
- Money Forward (3994): 1Q SaaS ARR on Steady Growth, Upfront Investments Lagging
- Money Forward: SAAS Model Begins to Take-Off but Interpret 1Q Results with Caution
- Koshidaka Holdings (2157): 1H OP Turns to Positive; Significant Store Expansion
- Komeda Holdings (3543): FY2/22 OP Achieved Guidance
Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again
- Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)‘s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)) are currently at all-time lows.
- This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan.
- Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won’t play out well.
Softbank Group Sale of TMUS Shares Helps Modestly With Leverage Concerns
- Softbank has raised $2.4bn (¥300bn) from the sale of TMUS shares to DT with proceeds likely earmarked for VF2 and possibly supporting ongoing share buybacks
- The sale price is below market but surfacing cash is the more positive takeaway and should ease concerns on leverage that have lingered as tech valuations fall
- The impact on the discount to NAV is likely to be weaker than the reaction to the TMUS/DT monetization in August/September
Money Forward (3994) – Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales
- Q1 results are better than expected, achieving record-high quarterly growth in SaaS revenue
- Growth is driven by Corporate Customer ARR, which rose by 47% YoY
- For growth investors, Money Forward is out top pick in Japan
Honda – EV Briefing Raises Some Interesting Questions
- Honda’s Briefing on its Automobile Electrification Business yesterday laid out a reasonably aggressive EV rollout plan emphasising some existing partnerships.
- It also highlighted that they would procure batteries domestically from Envision AESC.
- That is another move that takes Honda a step closer to Nissan’s supply chain and has us pondering a potential merger/partnership once again.
Japan’s Governance: About the Article on the March Shareholders’ Meeting Companies Update
- Regarding the Nikkei’s article on the survey of companies with December fiscal year end shows that companies shifting to prime market have noticeably improved corporate governance, I considered the issues.
- The reason of lifting % independent directors is because the prime market listing criteria included the ratio be at least 1/3, and many companies have raised it to that minimum.
- The objective of the skills matrix isn’t to create a skills matrix, but rather that it’s a means to identify and recruit the human resources required for the future growth.
Shift 2Q Results: Earnings Beat with Further Upgrade to Full-Year Guidance
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 2QFY08/2022 results last week. Revenue grew 43.5% YoY to JPY15.6bn (vs consensus JPY15.2bn) while OP 99.2% YoY to JPY1.9bn (vs consensus JPY1.1bn).
- Both enterprise and entertainment markets saw strong growth in revenue while GPM of enterprise biz further expanded during the quarter.
- Shift’s share price has moved up by about 16% since its results announcement and we think there is further upside.
Money Forward (3994): 1Q SaaS ARR on Steady Growth, Upfront Investments Lagging
- On April 13, Money Forward (3994, the company) announced 1Q (Dec-Feb) FY11/22 sales of 4.756bn yen (+37.2% YoY), EBITDA of -1.159bn yen (vs. 358m yen for 1Q FY11/21)
- Our 1Q earnings forecasts were sales of 4.363bn yen, EBITDA of -2.239bn yen, OP of -2.683bn yen, and SaaS ARR of 12.537bn yen
- SaaS ARR of 12.904bn yen includes 8.727bn yen for Business domain corporate customers (+46.7% YoY), 1.264bn yen for Business domain sole proprietors (+35.0% YoY)
Money Forward: SAAS Model Begins to Take-Off but Interpret 1Q Results with Caution
- Money Forward (3994 JP) reported 1QFY11/2022 results yesterday. 1Q revenue grew 37.0% YoY to JPY4.8bn and beat consensus estimates by 4.4%.
- Operating losses for the quarter was JPY1.6bn and accounted for around 34.7% of revenues during the period.
- MF’s SAAS model has started taking-off, we would highlight that string user growth comes at the cost of heavy advertising and subsidies.
Koshidaka Holdings (2157): 1H OP Turns to Positive; Significant Store Expansion
- On April 13, Koshida Holdings (2157, the company) announced 1H FY8/22 sales of 16.533bn yen (+36.5% YoY), OP of 275m yen (-2.644bn yen loss in 1H FY8/21)
- 2Q (Dec-Feb) OP was 1.406bn yen (-1.661bn yen loss in 2Q FY8/21), a significant improvement from 1Q OP of -1.131bn yen
- The total number of stores for the karaoke business at end-2Q was 584 (+7 from end-1Q; +25 from end-FY8/21)
Komeda Holdings (3543): FY2/22 OP Achieved Guidance
- On April 13, Komeda Holdings (3543) announced FY2/22 full-year IFRS sales of 33.317bn (+15.5% YoY) and OP of 7.305bn (+32.6% YoY; OPM 21.9%)
- 4Q (Dec-Feb) OP was 1.458bn yen (+17.9% YoY, -28.8% QoQ), with OPM of 16.8% (16.3% for 4Q FY2/21; 24.8% for 3Q)
- The company’s full-year guidance for FY2/23 is sales of 37bn (+11.1% YoY) and OP of 8bn yen (+9.5% YoY, OPM 21.6%)
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
